Tag Archives: SpaceX

Satellite News June 2026

FCC Approves AST SpaceMobile Constellation. The FCC approved an application from AST SpaceMobile to launch an additional 248 low-orbit satellites to deliver mobile service using 700 MHz and 800 MHz spectrum. These is a premium spectrum for this use since it carries further and penetrates clouds and storms better than higher frequencies. A year ago, the FCC gave the company permission to test direct-to-device connectivity using Band 14 spectrum, which is 700 MHz spectrum that had previously been reserved for public safety and first responder emergency use.

AT&T is Looking for Multiple Partners for D2D. AT&T Chairman and CEO John Stankey said recently that the company is looking at additional partners other than its current partnership with AST SpaceMobile for offering direct-to-device cellular services. He noted that SpaceX should have better capacity after it purchased spectrum from EchoStar. He also noted that Amazon will be a player when it completes the acquisition of Globalstar in 2027. Stankey noted that he is not interested in helping the D2D satellite companies disrupt the terrestrial satellite business, and that he believes that D2D is an alternate service that makes the most sense where cell networks don’t reach.

UK Launches D2D Service. The UK became the first country in Europe where a cellular company is offering D2D service for smartphones that is integrated into normal cellular service without the need for a special phone or a separate app. Virgin Media O2 uses the Starlink constellation and licensed 1800 MHz spectrum to offer an add-on service. Virgin customers can add satellite cellular service for £3 per month or can get the service for free with premium cellular packages. The initial service offers messaging and data, and works automatically in areas where Virgin doesn’t have good cell coverage.

This action in the UK is prompting the European Union to accelerate its effort to finalize spectrum for D2D service. The EU’s current spectrum plans include using 2 GHz spectrum, which is prized by LEO satellite companies, but Starlink and Amazon Leo are worried about current EU plans to allocate most of this spectrum to European satellite companies.

SpaceX IPO. In preparation for the SpaceX IPO on Nasdaq, the company announced that it had $13 billion in losses since the beginning of 2023. In 2025, the company had almost $18.7 billion in revenue but had an overall loss of $4.9 billion. The recent losses were driven by xAI, the company’s artificial intelligence venture that was founded in 2023.

The SpaceX IPO (SPCX) sold 556 million shares at a price of $135 on June 12. On the day when trading opened, the price started at $150 per share and closed at $160.95 at the end of the first trading session. The stock climbed to as much as $216 per share before ending around $190 per share yesterday.

Blue Origin Disaster. Amazon’s space ventures suffered a setback when the heavy-duty New Glenn rocket exploded on the launch pad in late May at the Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida. This will likely slow the launch of Amazon Leo, as this rocket was scheduled to carry 48 satellites into space. This also probably delays the company’s planned moon mission. The FCC had recently granted Amazon a requested delay in meeting the dates for activating the broadband satellite constellation.

100 Million Starlink Subscribers? New Street Research predicted that Starlink could reach 100 million subscribers by 2034. The prediction is based on the increasing number of satellites in the Starlink constellation and the technical improvements that will be introduced with the next generation of V3 satellites. For Starlink to reach that many subscribers will likely require the company to compete in urban or suburban areas with lower prices.

Satellite Update April 2026

There is so much news and activity in the satellite sector that I find myself gathering a pile of news items each month. Here are some of the highlights from April.

Amazon Entering Direct-to-Device Market. Amazon announced it has signed an agreement to buy Globalstar for $10.8 billion. Globalstar is one of the early leaders in developing technology for providing direct-to-device services to smartphones and other devices. Globalstar currently has about two dozen satellites in orbit.

Jeff Bezos Enters the Space Data Center Race. Jeff Bezos’s rocket company Blue Origin has applied to the FCC to launch a data center in space. The application asks for approval to launch 51,600 satellites that would constitute a huge AI data center. The company argues that a data center in space will complement terrestrial data centers and will give the U.S. the edge in machine learning, autonomous systems, and predictive analytics. The satellites would be placed between 300 and 1,100 miles above Earth, with most of them higher than broadband satellites. This announcement follows a proposal from SpaceX and Elon Musk to put a million data center satellites in space.

Growing Feud Between SpaceX and Amazon Leo. We’re seeing a budding regulatory rivalry between the two American broadband satellite companies. It seems that both SpaceX and Amazon Leo file comments about anything filed by its rival at the FCC. Earlier this month, SpaceX filed comments at the FCC complaining that Amazon Leo is violating the FCC’s orbital space debris mitigation plans. SpaceX claims that Amazon Leo placed several satellites 90 kilometers higher than authorized by the FCC. In a similar complaint, Amazon LEO accused SpaceX of placing satellites too low into its authorized space. Both companies have made negative comments on the other’s plans to create a satellite-based AI data center in space.

Will Starlink Honor BEAD? A group of House Democrats sent a letter to the NTIA Administrator Arielle Roth that raises concerns that SpaceX might not meet its BEAD obligations. The letter was prompted by letters sent by SpaceX to various state broadband offices that said the company doesn’t want to comply with various BEAD reporting requirements. The legislators fear that Starlink will walk away from BEAD, leaving locations with no broadband alternative (although these customers can buy satellite broadband regardless of the BEAD grants).

Failed Satellite Launch. A Blue Origin rocket failed to place a satellite for AST Space Mobile into the proper orbit, and the satellite had to be de-orbited. It was expected that insurance would be used to recover the cost of the lost satellite.

Amazon Leo to Launch Service in Mid-2026? The company said earlier this month that it is still planning to begin offering broadband service by mid-2026. That seems like an extraordinary claim since the company still had around 240 satellites in orbit as of the date of this blog. By comparison, Starlink had almost 900 satellites in service when it began beta tests with customers. At the time, the beta test customers described noticeable gaps in coverage between satellites. What’s most interesting about the announcement is that Amazon has asked the FCC for a two-year delay in meeting the full deployment obligation for its first constellation of over 3,200 satellites.

Environmental Protesters. Residents who live close to SpaceX’s Starbase launch site recently protested during a meeting centered on SpaceX’s planned IPO. The residents of the area complained about the repeated vibrations and pollution caused by regular rocket launches, along with concern about possible fires set in the arid South Texas landscape.

Denied Spectrum Sharing. The FCC recently denied requests from multiple satellite companies that wanted to share in spectrum bands already being used by other entities. As an example of the rejection, SpaceX had asked to share in the 1.5 GHz, 1.6/2.4 GHz, and 2 GHz bands. Other satellite companies had asked to share other spectrum bands. The FCC rejection said these requests were premature and that the agency needs to revise the way it allocates spectrum to accommodate direct-to-device service.

Starlink Flexing Its Market Power

In a short period of time, Starlink has taken three actions that demonstrates the company’s growing market power. The companies market power will be strengthened with the impending merger between SpaceX and Elon Musk’s AI company, xAI. Analysts have estimated the combined companies could garner a market value over $1 trillion.

The first move from Starlink came on January 15 when the company updated its user Privacy Policy. The revised terms say that, unless a customer opts out, Starlink can use user data “to train our machine learning or artificial intelligence models”, and that user data could be shared with third-party collaborators without providing more details to customers.

This should be disturbing to customers, because this doesn’t just mean sharing details of emails. In today’s broadband world, it could mean sharing video images, voice prints, and the giant amount of private information that an ISP can learn about its customers if it is looking.

Starlink’s second big move came when it sent a document to State Broadband Offices where Starlink is a tentative winner of BEAD grants. Starlink asked that LEO providers be excused from many of the BEAD obligations that will apply to other grant winners. The Starlink communication included a veiled threat that the company could pull out of BEAD if SBOs don’t meet its suggested terms.

Among the suggested changes, Starlink payments would not be linked to adding subscribers, and it would get 50% of BEAD funding up front and the rest over a specified schedule. Starlink would not have to provide financial reporting or provide any documentation about how it spends the grant funding. Starlink wants to be excused from speed test requirements since it can’t guarantee that subscribers have installed the satellite receiver properly. Starlink also wants to be excused from insurance and labor requirements.

On January 30, SpaceX asked the FCC for the ability to launch 1 million new satellites to create a giant orbital data center for AI. These satellites would be placed between 310 and 1,240 miles above Earth, in narrow 30-mile bands that would leave room to deconflict with other companies with similar goals. SpaceX says the giant satellite constellation is needed as the first step for humanity to become a Kardashev II-level civilization that fully harnesses the Sun’s power, while also providing enough AI capacity to serve billions of people. FYI, a Kardashev II-level civilization is one that fully harnesses the total energy output from its parent star. SpaceX says putting data centers in space is the most efficient way to meet the growing energy demands of AI data centers.

The constellation would use laser communications between satellites and would communicate back to Earth using Starlink’s current broadband constellation.  SpaceX says it could launch the data center satellites at a rapid pace using its new Starship launch vehicle.

Announcing these three things within a month shows a company that is feeling emboldened enough by market power to act as it wishes. If a terrestrial ISP openly said it will use customer data to train AI, it would risk being shunned in the market, but Starlink operates in many places where there are no other competitive options. I wonder how safe Starlink customers will feel about their data even if they opt out of sharing it with Starlink.

It’s going to be interesting to see how State Broadband Offices react to the Starlink demand for easier BEAD terms. Many of the SBOs didn’t want to make big awards to LEO satellite providers, and were coerced by  NTIA to do so with the Benefit of the Bargain rules. It’s not unimaginable that some States will outright reject Starlink’s request, which could lead to some interesting fights between States and NTIA.

The request to launch 1 million satellites could be a stunt to boost interest in the upcoming IPO and merger. Or it could be real. This FCC clearly favors satellite technology, but even for them, a request to launch 1 million satellites has to be an extreme request.

Broadband Shorts October 2025

These are a few topics I found interesting, but which don’t support a full blog.

NTIA BEAD Work to Continue During the Shutdown. We found out that the BEAD and other programs at NTIA were not subject to the government shutdown. NTIA is continuing work on BEAD, the Middle Mile program, the Tribal Broadband Connectivity program, the Broadband Infrastructure Program, and the Connecting Minority Communities program. Overall, NTIA was able to keep 463 of its 600 employees, largely because their work isn’t tied to annual appropriations.

My irony meter instantly went into full swing because NTIA is able to use the same funds allocated to BEAD to keep the federal side of the BEAD program open while the agency is actively working to claw back as much of that same funding as possible from State broadband grants and non-deployment funds.

Rights-of-way Not Permanent? The Georgia Supreme Court rules that local governments can withdraw contracts that granted rights-of-way, by relying on an argument that no contract can last forever, with no end date. This is bad news for telcos, cable companies, electric companies, wireless companies, and the many businesses that rely on maintaining rights-of-way to support long-term infrastructure. This might not mean much beyond the specific case that drew this ruling, but it opens up the possibility of local governments requiring periodic payments to maintain rights-of-way – something that infrastructure owners will be compelled to pay once infrastructure is using the rights-of-way.

Verizon to Buy Starry. Verizon purchased the fixed wireless company Starry, which is an interesting addition to the company’s expansion of wireless broadband. Starry has developed a unique wireless technology that it uses to bring broadband to large MDUs. Starry currently has over 100,000 customers in Boston, Denver, Los Angeles, New York/New Jersey, and Washington, D.C./Virginia.

Starry uses millimeter wave spectrum to reach customers. This fits in well with Verizon’s portfolio of millimeter wave spectrum that it had hoped to use for 5G. That use quickly died when it showed that the spectrum fizzled at street level when connecting to cellphones. Remember all of the Verizon commercials with a cellphone showing gigabit speeds?

FCC to Fast-Track Satellite Expansion. FCC Chairman Brendan Carr announced a push to fast-track satellite applications for expansions or changes to constellations. The process currently requires years of study by the FCC to consider any request from a satellite company. Carr described his planned changes as moving from a ‘Default to No’ process to a ‘Default to Yes’ framework”. He ways this will make the assumption that satellite technologies are in the public interest and should be treated in the same way that the FCC treats other technologies. This might be viewed as a pro-Starlink change, but there are dozens of companies asking for permission to launch satellites.

SpaceX has Chinese Investors. During a lawsuit, it was discovered that SpaceX has Chinese investors, a fact that has never been made public. This instantly raised a lot of questions since SpaceX is becoming increasingly important as a U.S. military contractor.

The extent of the Chinese investments, and the type of Chinese investor, was not disclosed, but it seems certain that this is going to be investigated. SpaceX has always kept its full ownership private, and that will likely have to change if it to wants to keep the role of defense contractor.

Starlink in the News

There is a lot of speculation that Starlink is positioned to get a lot more federal subsidy from the BEAD grant program. There are a few things that have to happen for that to come to pass, but that is not the only news about Starlink these days.

Starlink announced in September that it reached four million customers worldwide. What is most impressive about that announcement is the rate of growth, with the company just hitting the three million customer mark in May of 2024. The company served two million customers at the end of 2022, so the rate of growth is on a steep upward curve. The company currently has over 6,700 working satellites, up from 5,400 at the end of 2023. The company still plans to grow the first-generation constellation to 12,000 satellites. This growth puts the company on track to hit $6.6 billion in revenue for the year, which means the company will be able to internally fund its continued efforts to improve its reusable rockets.

At the end of November, the FCC’s Space Bureau granted the SpaceX application to construct, deploy, and operate a constellation of the next generation of satellites, which the company is calling its Gen2 Starlink constellation. The FCC authorized SpaceX to operate the Gen2 satellites at altitudes of 340, 345, 350, and 360 kilometers. The FCC also gave permission to connect to the new satellites using Ku-, Ka-, E-, and V-band frequencies. Starlink says it still hopes to eventually reach 29,988 Gen2 satellites, up from the 7,500 approved by the FCC so far.

In the application that requested the changes, Starlink said that “small-but-meaningful updates” can boost broadband speeds to 1 Gbps. Starlink’s website says that current actual speeds vary between 25 Mbps and 220 Mbps, with a majority of users experiencing speeds over 100 Mbps. Current upload speeds are typically between 5 and 20 Mbps. Current latency ranges between 25 and 60 milliseconds, with 100+ milliseconds in a few remote locations.

The company says the faster speeds would come from several changes. The company plans to use larger Starlink satellites, which are so big that only Starship can launch them. SpaceX has also requested to lower the altitudes of existing satellites, requesting to lower satellites at 525, 530, 535 kilometers to 475, 480, and 485 kilometers, respectively.” Another request to the FCC would change the elevation angles for satellites operating between 400 and 500 kilometers from 25 degrees to 20. This would increase the connection times to earth stations.

Finally, the FCC approved the request by SpaceX and T-Mobile to offer supplemental mobile coverage from space. The FCC ruling said this “will put an end to mobile dead zones.” For now, the approval extends to basic connection for texts or emergency communications using slices of T-Mobile’s spectrum in areas the mobile carrier’s terrestrial network can’t reach.

There is no guarantee that the FCC will approve everything Starlink is asking for. Companies like AT&T and Verizon have said that some of Starlink’s requests for frequency would interfere with and degrade service from terrestrial mobile networks.

One bit of negative news is that Starlink has reintroduced a wait list in some markets. Is this something that will be relieved as more satellites are launched, or will the rapid customer growth outstrip network capacity. This is the same kind of issue that every ISP that grows quickly faces.

Elon Musk’s close ties to the administration bodes well for the company to get much of its wish list. The company had a very good 2024, and the future looks even brighter.

Satellites Directly to Cellphones

AT&T and satellite company AST SpaceMobile announced a partnership to provide satellite cellular service directly from satellites to cellphones. This will provide a service that is much needed for the billions of remote users who are not in the range of a cell tower.

This is an emerging industry that is still being referred to be different acronyms. Direct-to-Device, or D2D seems to be emerging as a popular term. The FCC has been calling this Supplemental Coverage from Space (SCS). Others have been referring to this as Direct-to-Cell Phone.

AST offers a unique satellite technology that is far different than what can is used for broadband satellites like the ones being deployed by Starlink. The AST satellites have a large surface area which provides the ability to shape the signal to reach cellphones and to receive the signal back directly from a phone.

The company claims that the large satellites will be able to process up to one million simultaneous calls. The satellites will also be able to provide some broadband capability. AST is also using both low- and mid-band frequencies to increase connectivity options to and from users. Backhaul will likely be accomplished through links to AT&T ground stations.

The first AST launch will include five satellites in July or August that will be operational in about three months after launch. The satellites will be circling the globe at a high speed, and initial customers will only be able to make calls when the satellites are overhead. The company needs at least 45 satellites to provide constant connectivity, and over time, will likely keep adding satellites to improve overall capacity.

There are a lot of other players interested in pursuing the lucrative market that could include as many as 5 billion customers worldwide for folks who live, work, or travel to remove places. Here in the U.S., there are still huge parts of rural America with terrible cellular coverage.

  • Apple started the race by providing links directly from satellites to devices in 2022 when it announced that the iPhone 14 had the capability of connecting to Globalstar satellites for emergency text messages. Apple has invested more than $450 million to help Globalstar upgrade its ground stations.
  • Later in 2022, SpaceX announced a partnership with T-Mobile to also allow emergency texting. SpaceX had previously acquired Swarm in 2021 to try to develop the technology.
  • In early 2023, Qualcomm announced that its Snapdragon chip could connect directly to the Iridium satellite network to relay emergency text messages.
  • Lynk Global is working on constructing a fleet of satellites. The company has three test satellites in orbit. Lynk is collaborating with over 40 worldwide cellular carriers.
  • MediaTek has developed a satellite-compatible chipset that can connect to a Bullitt platform to use high-orbit GEO satellites from Inmarsat and Echostar.
  • Huawei and China Telecom have developed emergency calling and are working to deploy a LEO satellite constellation.
  • Deloitte predicted at the end of last year that 200 million smartphones will be sold in 2024 that contain the capability of connecting directly to a satellite.

There is a lot of demand for seamless cellular connectivity. People who travel around the world get frustrated by cellphones that only work in some countries. People who work daily in rural areas are frustrated as they move in and out of cell coverage. The ability to provide cellphone broadband could bring Internet connectivity to billions of people who are still not able to connect to an ISP. This service could also provide connectivity to remote sensors and other devices located out of reach of terrestrial networks.

This is going to be an interesting market, and it’s likely to be a huge one. It’s not unexpected to see AT&T jump into the fray to chase a huge new revenue stream.

Who’s Chasing RDOF Grants?

There is a veritable Who’s Who of big companies that have registered for the upcoming RDOF auction. All of the hundreds of small potential bidders to the auction have to be a bit nervous seeing the list of companies they could end up bidding against.

As a reminder, RDOF stands for Rural Digital Opportunity Fund and is an auction that starts in October that will award up to $16.4 billion in broadband funding. The money will be awarded by reverse auction in a process that favors faster technologies, but also favors those willing to take the lowest amount of grant per customer. The areas that are eligible for the funding are among the most remote places in the country, which is why the list of potential large bidders is puzzling.

There are some big cable companies on the list: Altice, Charter Communications, Cox Communications, Atlantic Broadband, Midco, and Mediacom Communications. These companies serve many of the county seats or other nearby towns to many of the RDOF areas. One has to wonder what these companies have in mind. The only one that has chased any significant federal grants in the past is Midco in Minnesota and North Dakota. Midco has been using grant money to extend fiber backhaul to connect its smallest markets, to build last-mile broadband in some tiny towns, and to build fixed wireless in rural areas surrounding its cable markets.

One has to wonder if the other cable companies have a similar plan. It’s incredibly inefficient to build traditional hybrid coaxial-fiber networks in rural areas, so it’s unlikely that the cable companies will be extending their existing networks. The RDOF auction is being done by Census blocks, which in rural areas can cover a large area. The winner of the auction for a given Census block must offer service to everybody in that block. I also have a hard time envisioning all of these big cable companies getting into the wireless business like Midco is doing, so their presence in the auction is a bit of a mystery.

Then there are the traditional large telcos including Frontier, Windstream, Consolidated Communications, and CenturyLink. These companies already serve many of the areas that are covered by the reverse auction. These are the rural areas where these companies have largely neglected the old copper wiring and either offer no broadband or dreadfully slow DSL. The minimum technology allowed to enter the auction must deliver 25/3 Mbps broadband. It’s almost painful to think that these companies would chase the funding and promise to upgrade DSL to 25/3 Mbps after these companies largely botched an upgrade to 10/1 Mbps DSL in the just-ending CAF II grants. The cynic in me says they are willing to pretend to upgrade DSL all over again if that means substantial grant money. I have to think that some of these companies are considering deploying fixed wireless. To the extent any of these companies is willing to take on new debt or use equity, they could also build fiber. None of these companies has built a substantial amount of fiber to truly rural places, but may these grants are the inducement they were waiting for.

Verizon and U.S. Cellular have registered for the auction. You have to think the cellular carriers will be deploying fixed cellular broadband like the 4G FWA product that Verizon just announced recently. These companies already have equipment on towers in many of the RDOF grant areas and would love to grab a subsidy to roll out a product they might be selling in these areas anyway.

Then there are the satellite companies SpaceX, Hughes Network Systems, and Viasat. Viasat has won federal grant money before for selling broadband from its high-altitude satellites. SpaceX is the wildcard since nobody knows anything about the pricing or real speeds they can provide. We know that Elon Musk has been lobbying the FCC to let him have a shot at the billions up for grabs in this auction.

There is another interesting wildcard with Starry. Their business plan is currently selling fixed wireless to large apartment buildings in center cities and they’ve developed a proprietary technology that’s perfect for that application. They must have something else in mind in chasing grant money in remote areas that are 180 degrees different than their normal business model. Starry founder Chet Kanojia is incredibly creative, so he probably has a new technology in mind if he wins auction funding.

There may be other big players in the auction as well since many of the registered bidders are participating under partnerships or corporations that are disguising their identity for now. I think one thing is clear and some of the rural ISPs and cooperative who think nobody else is interested in their markets will get a surprise early in the auction. These big companies didn’t register for the grant auction to sit on the sidelines.

Amazon Joins the Broadband Space Race

I wrote a blog just a few weeks ago talking about how OneWeb had fully leaped into the race to place broadband satellites by launching a few test satellites and also by raising a few more billion dollars to fund the venture.

It’s been rumored for several years that Amazon was also interested in the idea, but their plans have been under wraps. It just came to light that Amazon has taken the first public steps and had the FCC file paperwork with the International Telecommunications Union to make notice of Amazon’s intent to launch satellites.

Amazon filed with the FCC under the name of Kuiper Systems LLC. Space fans will recognize the corporate name as a reference to the Kuiper belt, which is the area of the solar system past Neptune that is believed to contain numerous comets, asteroids and other small objects made largely of ice.

Amazon has big plans and the ITU filing said the company wants to launch a constellation of 3,236 satellites in low earth orbit. That’s 784 satellites in orbit at 367 miles above the earth, 1,296 in orbit at 379 miles, and 1,156 in orbit at 391 miles. Added to the other companies that are talking about getting into the business that’s now more than 10,000 planned satellites.

We know that Jeff Bezos is serious about space. He owns a rocket business, Blue Origins, that is developing an orbital-class rocket called the New Glenn. That company already has some future contracts to make private launches for OneWeb and Telesat. Amazon also recently launched a cloud computing service knows as AWS Ground Station that is intended to provide communications data links between earth and object in outer space. We also found out recently that Bezos kept 100% control of Blue Origins as part of his divorce settlement.

None of the low-orbit satellite ventures have talked about broadband speeds, prices or customer penetration goals. The only one making any announcement was SpaceX who said that his Starlink satellites would be capable of making a gigabit connection to earth. But that’s a far cry from a realistic estimate of a broadband product and is the satellite version of the Sprint cellphone test that showed that millimeter wave spectrum could deliver gigabit speeds to a cellphone. It can be done but is incredibly hard and would involve synching big data pipes from multiple satellites to a single customer.

We got another clue recently when OneWeb asked the FCC for permission to eventually create 1 million links to earth-based receivers, meaning customers. That puts some perspective on the satellites and shows that they are not trying to bring broadband to every rural customer. But still, one million satellite connections would represent about 10% of the rural homes in the US that don’t have broadband today. If that’s their US goal it automatically tells me that prices will likely be high.

NASA and others in charge of space policy have also started talking recently about the potential dangers from so many objects in orbit. We don’t know the size of the Amazon satellites yet. But Elon Musk said his satellites would range in size from a refrigerator down to some that are not larger than a football. NASA is worried about collisions between manned space flights with satellites and space debris.

Amazon is still early in the process. They haven’t yet filed a formal proposal to the FCC discussing their technology and plans. They are several years behind OneWeb and Starlink in terms of getting a test satellite into orbit. But an Amazon space venture has the built-in advantage of being able to advertise a satellite broadband product on the Amazon website where the vast majority of Americans routinely shop. I can envision Amazon measuring the broadband speed of a customer connected to the Amazon website and popping up an offer to buy faster broadband.

It’s absolutely impossible to predict the impact these various satellite companies will have on US broadband. A lot of their impact is going to depend upon the speeds and prices they offer. A lot of rural America is starting to see some decent speeds offered by WISPs with newer radios. Every year some pockets of of rural America are getting fiber and gigabit speeds. Where might the satellites fall into that mix? We can’t forget that the need for broadband is still doubling every three years, and one has to consider the speeds that homes will want a decade from now – not the speeds households want today. We’re at least a few years from seeing any low-orbit broadband connections and many years away from seeing the swarm of over 10,000 satellites that are planned for broadband delivery.

Delays in Satellite Broadband

One of the big unknowns for rural broadband is if there will ever be a better satellite broadband option. The industry was surprised last year when Elon Musk announced that he planned to blanket the earth with over 4,000 satellites and operate as a worldwide ISP under the newly formed Starlink. These satellites would be launched by SpaceX, another Elon Musk company that that provides commercial rocket launches.

I’ve been following the financial news about the Elon Musk family of businesses, and about SpaceX and Starlink more specifically, since a successful launch of the business could provide another rural option for broadband.

There are several financial analysts predicting that Starlink is now largely on hold, due mostly to funding issues. They report that Starlink has stopped hiring the new employees needed to implement the business plan. Further, it appears that SpaceX needs up to $10 billion to fulfill its own business plan and that any money raised by the company is likely to go there first before Starlink is funded. At a minimum this probably means a major delay in satellite launches for Starlink.

These analysts warn that the SpaceX business plan is not yet solid. The commercial launch business is now seeing other major competitors. ULA, the existing major competitor to SpaceX has been stepping up their game. Boeing is behind Space Launch Systems, another newcomer to the field. Jeff Bezos of Amazon has started Blue Origin and has started construction on a spaceflight center in Florida. There is also a new competitor announced in Japan. The competition is going to drive down the cost of space launches and will also spread the launches among numerous parties, diluting any early advantage enjoyed by SpaceX.

SpaceX was counting on riding the coattails of other commercial launches to get the broadband satellites into space. The company is scheduled to complete 28 launches by the end of this year but is only scheduled so far for 18 launches in 2019. The company is also banking on making money from selling commercial space travel to rich tourists, but the analysts doubt that will be enough revenue to keep the company afloat.

Starlink had originally announced plans to have 40 million broadband subscribers generating $30 billion in annual revenues by 2025. That’s an average revenue per customer of $63 dollars per month. It now looks like the date for getting the company started will be significantly delayed. Starlink launched two test satellites earlier this year, but has not reported how they performed.

I’ve also wondered if Starlink would strongly pursue the residential broadband business in North America. While they will be a great alternative for rural America, they will be just another player in cities. Being an ISP makes a lot more sense in those parts of the world where the company could enjoy a near-monopoly.

In the US and Canada there is probably a lot more money to be made instead by serving the many proposed small cell sites if 5G turns out to be a relevant business plan. Starlink says they can deliver speeds of a gigabit or more to a given customer, but the math behind the bandwidth available at any given satellite means that would only be available to a relatively small number of customers rather than to the whole residential market. Speeds for residential broadband are likely to be at much lower speeds. However, gigabit satellite broadband could be the backhaul solution that 5G needs and might let it escape the bottleneck of needing fiber everywhere. I’ve never seen any discussion of such a partnership, but that’s probably because the satellite business is still somewhat theoretical and at a minimum, delayed from the original projected time line.

The Flood of New Satellite Networks

I wrote a blog a few months ago about SpaceX, Elon Musk’s plan to launch a massive network starting with over 4,400 low-orbit satellites to blanket the world with better broadband. SpaceX has already launched the first few test satellites to test the technology. It seems like a huge logistical undertaking to get that many satellites into orbit and SpaceX is not the only company with plans for satellite broadband. Last year the FCC got applications for approval for almost 9,000 different new communications satellites. Some are geared to provide rural broadband like SpaceX, but others are pursuing IoT connectivity, private voice networks and the creation of space-based backhaul and relay networks.

The following companies are targeting the delivery of broadband:

Boeing. Boeing plans a network of 2,956 satellites that will concentrate on providing broadband to government and commercial customers worldwide. They intend to launch 1,396 satellites within the next six years. This would be the aerospace company’s first foray into being an ISP, but they have experience building communications satellites for over fifty years.

OneWeb. The company is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia and was founded by Greg Wyler. The company would be a direct competitor to SpaceX for rural and residential broadband and plans a network of over 700 satellites. They have arranged launches through Virgin Galactic, the company founded by Richard Branson. The company plans to launch its first satellite next year.

O3b. The company’s name stands for the ‘other 3 billion’ meaning those in the world with no access to broadband today. This company is also owned by Greg Wyler. They already operate a few satellites today that provide broadband to cruise ships and to third-world governments. Their plan is to launch 24 additional satellites in a circular equatorial orbit. Rather than launching a huge number of small satellites they plan an interconnected network of high-capacity satellites.

ViaSat. The company already provides rural broadband today and plans to add an additional 24 satellites at an altitude of about 4,000 miles. The company recently launched a new ViaSat-2 satellite this year to augment the existing broadband satellite service across the western hemisphere. The company is promising speeds of up to 100 Mbps. In addition to targeting rural broadband customers the satellite is targeting broadband delivery to cruise ships and airplanes.

Space Norway. The company wants to launch two satellites that specifically target broadband delivery to the Arctic region in Europe, Asia and Alaska.

The business plans of the following companies vary widely and shows the range of opportunities for space-based communications:

Kepler Communications. This Canadian company headquartered in Toronto is proposing a network of up to 140 tiny satellites the size of a football which will be used to provide private phone connectivity for shipping, transportation fleets and smart agriculture. Rather than providing broadband, the goal is to provide private cellphone networks to companies with widely dispersed fleets and locations.

Theia Holdings. The company is proposing a network of 112 satellites aimed at telemetry and data gathering for services such as weather monitoring, agricultural IoT, natural resource monitoring, general infrastructure monitoring and security systems. The network will consist almost entirely of machine to machine communication.

Telesat Canada. This Canadian company already operates satellites today that provide private voice communications networks for corporate and government customers. The company is launching two new satellites to supplement the 15 already in orbit and has plans for a network consisting of at least 117 satellites. The company’s largest targeted customer is the US Military.

LeoSat MA. The company is planning a worldwide satellite network that can speed a transmission around the globe about 1.5 times faster than terrestrial fiber networks. Their market will be large businesses and governments that need real-time communication around the globe for applications like stock exchanges, business communications, scientific applications and government communications.

Audacy Corp. The company want to provide the first satellite network aimed at providing communications between satellites and spacecraft. Today there is a bandwidth bottleneck between terrestrial earth stations and satellites and Audacy proposes to create a space-only broadband relay network to enable better communications between satellites, making them the first space-based backbone network.