Latest Industry Statistics

The statistics are out for the biggest cable TV and data providers for the first quarter of the year and they show an industry that is still undergoing big changes. Broadband keeps growing and cable TV is starting to take some serious hits.

Perhaps the most relevant statistic of all is that there are now more broadband customers in the country than cable TV customers. The crossover happened sometime during the last quarter. This happened a little sooner than predicted due to plunging cable subscribers.

For the quarter the cable companies continued to clobber the telcos in terms of broadband customers. Led by big growth in broadband customers at Comcast and Charter the cable companies collectively added a little over 1 million new broadband customers for the quarter. Charter led the growth with 458,000 new broadband subscribers with Comcast a close second at 430,000 new customers.

Led by Frontier’s loss of 107,000 broadband customers for the quarter the telcos collectively lost 45,000 net customers for the quarter. Most of Frontier’s losses stem from the botched acquisition of Verizon FiOS properties. Verizon lost 27,000 customers for the quarter while AT&T U-verse was the only success among telcos adding 90,000 new customers for the quarter.

Looking back over the last year the telcos together lost 727,000 broadband customers while the cable companies together gained 3.11 million customers during the same period. The cable companies now control 63.2% of the broadband market, up from 61.5% of the market a year ago.

Overall the broadband market grew by 2.38 million new broadband subscribers for over the last year ending March 31. It’s a market controlled largely by the giant ISPs and the largest cable companies and telcos together account for 93.9 million broadband subscribers.

Cable TV shows a very different picture. The largest seven cable providers collectively lost 487,000 video subscribers for the quarter. That includes AT&T losing 233,000, Charter losing 100,000, Dish Networks losing 143,000, Verizon losing 13,000, Cox losing 4,000 and Altice losing 35,000. The only company to gain cable subscribers was Comcast, which gained 41,000.

Total industry cable subscriber losses were 762,000 for the quarter as smaller cable companies and telcos are also losing customers. That is five times larger than the industry losses of 141,000 in the first quarter of last year. This industry is now losing 2.4% of the market per year, but that r is clearly accelerating and will probably grow larger. The annual rate of decline is already significantly higher than last year’s rate of 1.8%.

At this point it’s clear that cord cutting is picking up steam and this was the worst performance ever by the industry.

The biggest losers have stories about their poor performance. Charter says it is doing better among its own historic customers but is losing a lot of customers from the Time Warner acquisition as Charter raises rates and does away with Time Warner promotional discounts. AT&T has been phasing out of cable TV over its U-Verse network. This is a DSL service that has speeds as high as 45 Mbps, but which is proving to be inadequate to carry both cable TV and broadband together. Dish Networks has been bogged down in numerous carriage and retransmission fights with programmers and has had a number of channels taken off the air.

But even considering all of these stories it’s clear that customers are leaving the big companies. Surveys of cord cutters show that very few of them come back to traditional cable after cutting the cord after they get used to getting programming in a different way.

What is probably most strikingly different about the numbers is that for years the first quarter has performed the best for the cable industry, which in recent years has still seen customer gains even while other quarters were trending downward. We’ll have to see what this terrible first quarter means for the rest of 2017.

 

 

Another Reversal of the FilmOn X Decision

In the continuing saga of looking for alternate ways to get programming to the home, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit reversed an earlier ruling that said that FilmOn X had a right to retransmit over-the-air television signals.

FilmOn is a global provider of internet-based programming. They carry over 600 channels of broadcast TV from around the world. They also carry a big library of movies and offer a few of their own theme-based channels (such as Shockmasters that specialize in Alfred Hitchcock movies and television shows).

I won’t go through the history of the company and its attempts to carry the major US networks like ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox. The company was granted the right to carry this content several times in various courts and then had those decisions reversed by other courts. This case marks the third time that the company has been told it doesn’t have the right to retransmit these networks.

The company has tried several ways of delivering these networks to customers. They originally just grabbed the signals out of the air and put them on the internet. When told this wasn’t allowed by the courts they then set up satellite farms to wirelessly send individual signals to customers in a manner similar to Aereo.

This latest ruling said specifically that FilmOn is not eligible to call itself a cable company and to demand that local stations sell them content. That ruling hinged upon testimony provided by the US Patent office that said that such authority for internet-based retransmission was not clear. This differed from an earlier US Supreme Court ruling in the Aereo case that said that internet retransmission was equivalent to cable retransmission.

What’s really at the heart of this case is the definition of who is eligible to retransmit signals from the major over-the-air networks. Congress, through various laws, has given the right (and usually also the obligation) for landline-based cable companies to carry the major networks. Cable companies are obligated to carry those stations that are within certain distances from their customer base.

But over the years those that have been allowed to carry local programming has grown. Within the last decade the satellite cable companies began carrying local stations in many markets. I lived in the Caribbean for many years and some of the cable providers in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands somehow obtained the rights to carry some New York City local stations. Today there are a number of OTT providers like Sling TV and Playstation Vue that are carrying local network stations.

But the current rules draw a firm distinction between those that must carry local programming and everybody else. And this gives the flexibility to local stations to decide if they will sell their signal to those without the automatic rights. The big networks have decided to provide programming to Sling TV, but not to FilmOn or Aereo.

Originally both FilmOn and Aereo captured the broadcast signals from the air and put them onto their own networks. That obviously angered the big networks and they got that ruling reversed. But then these providers refused to sell their signal to these two companies. One has to think that was partly done to punish these companies for challenging them, and perhaps partly due to the cable companies who lobbied against competition.

This ruling could really stifle new OTT providers. It seems one part of the OTT appeal is the ability to deliver local network programming as part of their packages. This ruling gives local stations the ability to choose who can or cannot buy their signal, and to thus pick winners and losers in the competitive OTT battlefield.

It’s hard to think that this makes any sense. But Congress or the FCC could clarify this issue if they cared to tackle it. Just over two years ago the FCC put out a Notice for Proposed Rulemaking asking about this exact topic. The FCC wanted to clarify the rights for internet-based programmers to buy content, and in that docket the FCC had suggested that anybody ought to be allowed to buy programming if they agree to pay the market rates for it. But the FCC has never acted in that docket which has led to today’s situation where some providers are given programming and others not. The have-nots aren’t just companies like FilmOn and Aereo, and it’s been reported for years that Apple has been unable to get programming rights.

At some point this needs to be clarified. The last companies we want deciding who can or cannot offer programming services are the major networks, especially since some of them are owned by cable companies. I have no idea if the FCC will address this, but they need to.

Leasing Rural Cellular Spectrum

I don’t write often about potential legislation since there are numerous bills submitted to Congress every year that never make it out of committees. But there is a recently proposed bill that could create both an opportunity to expand rural broadband and also a threat to those already serving rural areas.

The bill is H.R. 1814 the Rural Spectrum Accessibility Act.  It has been introduced as a bipartisan bill by Congressmen Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) and Dave Loebsack (D-IA). It’s a very short bill, with the full text here. The bill is currently being considered by the House Energy and Commerce Committee.

The bill proposes to encourage owners of cellular wireless spectrum to partition or disaggregate their spectrum for use in rural areas and to lease the spectrum to small carriers. In this case a small carrier is defined as any carrier that has fewer than 1,500 employees (which most of the folks reading this blog would consider as a pretty large carrier!).

The bill would instruct the FCC to extend the license for three years for any wireless license holder that agrees to lease spectrum under this new law. That is a major boon to wireless spectrum holders and one would imagine that many of them would look for opportunities to take advantage of this offer.

The leased spectrum could only be used in rural areas, which is defined in the normal definition used for most other regulatory purposes as towns or with populations less than 20,000 and all areas that we think of as rural.

The Opportunity. The opportunity would be a new way for rural carriers to provide broadband. Numerous rural carriers are now offering wireless point-to-multipoint broadband using unlicensed spectrum. But the range of coverage with this technology is relatively short with the strongest signals only carrying for a few miles. Unlicensed spectrum is subject to interference by foliage or any physical barrier like a hill.

But cellular spectrum carries up to three times further when used for point-to-multipoint data. Depending upon the density and the number of customers to serve, this spectrum could be used to deliver fairly robust broadband. I’ve talked to customers on the new point-to-multipoint service offered by AT&T that receive data bursts as fast as 30 Mbps. But in really rural areas with a handful of customers, speeds could be considerably faster than that. I’d note that AT&T apparently only offers the faster speed in short burst, but a rural carrier could establish that as a permanent speed. In addition to greater distance, the cellular spectrum also travels well through foliage, through walls at homes, and even bounces over hills fairly well.

The opportunity is for rural carriers to be able to bring data services to customers at a greater distance from a tower, but probably most importantly would offer a wireless option for carriers operating in heavily wooded areas like Appalachia or the Pacific Northwest. Unlicensed spectrum is a poor alternative in those places.

The Threat. Of course, there also exists a threat to every existing rural carrier in that some other carrier can now compete with them in rural areas. The bill says that the spectrum would be available to any small ‘carrier’ and that generally means anybody that is certified by states – meaning not only ILECs, but competitive CLECs.

If this becomes law I would envision rural CLECs asking to lease spectrum. I also envision carriers like WISPs becoming carriers in order to use this spectrum.

It certainly is an interesting idea. Wireless license holders have always had the ability to lease spectrum in rural areas. I have three clients who have been able to lease cellular spectrum from Sprint, for example. But for the most part it’s always been difficult to get the attention of rural spectrum owners, and I know several clients have been unable to lease spectrum from any of the existing license holders. For the most part the cellular license holders aren’t interested in dealing with small carriers. This legislation would still not guarantee that spectrum would be made available, but it would add an incentive for license holders to make such leases.

The Latest on Federal Broadband Infrastructure

There is a lot of talk in DC of working towards a federal infrastructure funding plan this year. So today I’m going discuss some of the latest news about infrastructure, particularly as it affects broadband funding.

Shovel Ready Projects. A few weeks ago the White House said that they only favored funding ‘shovel-ready’ projects. meaning those projects that have already had enough engineering and financial work done to understand the costs and benefits. The President said that he didn’t want to fund projects that would then take ten years to get started, something that is not that unusual for highway projects.

Size of the Funding. US Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao last week said that the administration’s infrastructure plan would be for $1 trillion spread over ten years. That’s the first time we’ve heard any specific numbers and time frame. There is no telling at this point whether the funding would be spread evenly over the years. Secretary Chao said the details of the plan would be released later this year.

Including Broadband? Secretary Chao said that that “the proposal will cover more than transportation infrastructure, it will include energy, water and potentially broadband and veterans hospitals as well.” This certainly tells us that broadband funding is not a sure thing at this point.

Probably Not Outright Grants. Secretary Chao also reiterated what the administration had said earlier that any funding was going to favor public-private partnerships and was not likely to directly fund projects. This has always been expected, but this doesn’t tell us anything about the nature of the support. There was talk during the transition of the infrastructure plan to heavily favor using tax credits, meaning that it would favor and induce large companies to invest in infrastructure.

I suspect the idea of public private partnerships for roads tells us to expect a lot of new tolls roads. Advisers to Trump have said they would rely on federal tax credits and public-private partnerships rather than federal spending to pay for a new infrastructure program. The concept of public-private partnership is a bit puzzling when it comes to broadband in that there are many states where local governments can’t participate in broadband or are severely restricted from doing so.

FCC’s Position. FCC Chairman Ajit Pai said recently that any broadband funding ought to be handled through the Universal Service Fund mechanisms since it already has the processes in place to handle such funding. The Chairman came out heavily in favor of significant broadband funding for rural areas as well as funding what he calls Gigabit Opportunity Zones that would provide tax incentives for serving low income areas.

Bipartisan Support for Broadband. In early February 48 US Senators from both parties sent a letter to the President supporting the idea that any infrastructure plans should include funding for broadband. My guess is that this is due to the complaints that all politicians are hearing these days from those without adequate broadband.

Democratic Alternative. And of course, since this is Washington DC, there is also an alternate infrastructure plan. Senate Democrats unveiled an alternative $1 trillion plan that would more directly fund infrastructure with mostly outright grants. Their plan includes not only roads and bridges, but also broadband networks, hospitals run by the Department of Veterans Affairs, and schools. In general there is a lot of Democratic support for broadband funding and the plan allocated $20 billion for broadband. I guess the trillion dollar question will be if this is a topic that might find some bilateral agreement.

What are the Odds? When it comes to Washington and politics I don’t have any better crystal ball than anybody else. But it does look like there is bipartisan support for doing something with infrastructure and even more bipartisan support to make sure that broadband is included in any funding package. It’s probably a good time for small service providers to make sure that your DC representatives hear from you. And it’s a good time for those without broadband to yell even louder.

Broadband Shorts – March 2017

Today I’m writing about a few interesting topics that are not long enough to justify a standalone blog:

Google Scanning Non-user Emails. There has been an ongoing class action lawsuit against Google for scanning emails from non-Google customers. Google has been open for years about the fact that they scan email that originates through a Gmail account. The company scans Gmail for references to items that might be of interest to advertisers and then sell that condensed data to others. This explains how you can start seeing ads for new cars after emailing that you are looking for a new car.

There are no specific numbers available for how much they make from scanning Gmail, but this is part of their overall advertising revenues which were $79.4 billion for 2016, up 18% over 2015.  The class action suit deals with emails that are sent to Gmail users from non-Gmail domains. It turns out that Google scans these emails as well, although non-Gmail users have never agreed to the terms of service that applies to Gmail users. This lawsuit will be an important test of customer privacy rights, particularly if Google loses and appeals to a higher court. This is a germane topic right now since the big ISPs are all expected to do similar scanning of customer data now that the FCC and Congress have weakened consumer privacy rights for broadband.

Verizon FiOS and New York City. This relationship is back in the news since the City is suing Verizon for not meeting its promise to bring broadband to everybody in the city in 2008. Verizon has made FiOS available to 2.2 million of the 3.3 million homes and businesses in the city.

The argument is one of the definition of a passing. Verizon says that they have met their obligation and that the gap is due to landlords that won’t allow Verizon into their buildings. But the city claims that Verizon hasn’t built fiber on every street in the city and also that the company has often elected to not enter older buildings due to the cost of distributing fiber inside the buildings. A number of landlords claim that they have asked Verizon into their buildings but that the company either elected to not enter the buildings or else insisted on an exclusive arrangement for broadband services as a condition for entering a building.

New Applications for Satellite Broadband.  The FCC has received 5 new applications for launching geostationary satellite networks bringing the total requests up to 17. Now SpaceX, OneWeb, Telesat, O3b Networks and Theia Holdings are also asking permission to launch satellite networks that would provide broadband using the V Band of spectrum from 37 GHz to 50 GHz. Boeing also expanded their earlier November request to add the 50.4 GHz to 52.4 GHz bands. I’m not sure how the FCC picks winners from this big pile – and if they don’t we are going to see busy skies.

Anonymous Kills 20% of Dark Web. Last month the hackers who work under the name ‘Anonymous’ knocked down about 20% of the web sites from the dark web. The hackers were targeting cyber criminals who profit from child pornography. Of particular interest was a group known as Freedom Hosting, a group that Anonymous claims has over 50% of their servers dedicated to child pornography.

This was the first known major case of hackers trying to regulate the dark web. This part of the Internet is full of pornography and other kinds of criminal content. The Anonymous hackers also alerted law enforcement about the content they uncovered.

AT&T’s Broadband Trials

John Donovan, the chief strategy officer for AT&T, spoke at the Mobile World Congress recently and said that the company was trying five different technologies for the last mile. This includes WLL (wireless local loop), G.Fast, 5G, AirGig and fiber-to-the-premise. He said the company would be examining the economics of all of different technologies. Let me look at each one, in relation to AT&T.

Wireless Local Loop (WLL). The technology uses the companies LTE bandwidth but utilizes a point-to-multipoint network configuration. By using a small dish on the house to receive the signal the company is getting better bandwidth than can be received from normal broadcast cellular. The company has been doing trials on various different versions of the technology for many years. But there are a few recent trials of the newest technology that AT&T will be using for much of its deployment in rural America as part of the CAF II plan. That plan requires the ISP to deliver at least 10/1 Mbps. AT&T says that the technology is delivering speeds of 15 to 25 Mbps. The company says that even at the edge of a cellular network that a customer can get 10 Mbps about 90% of the time.

G.Fast. This is a technology that uses high frequencies to put more bandwidth on telephone copper wire. Speeds are reported to be as high as 500 Mbps, but only for very short distances under 200 feet. AT&T recently announced a G.Fast trial in an apartment building in Minneapolis. The technology is also being tested by CenturyLink and Windstream. All of these trials are using existing telephone copper inside of existing apartment buildings to deliver broadband. So this is not really a last mile technology. AT&T brings fiber to the apartment complex and then uses G.Fast as an inside wire technology. If they find it to be reliable this would be a great alternative to rewiring apartments with fiber.

5G. AT&T recently announced a few trials of early 5G technologies in Austin. They are looking at several technology ideas such carrier aggregation (combining many frequencies). But these are just trials, and AT&T is one of the companies helping to test pre-5G ideas as part of the worldwide effort to define the 5G specifications. These are not tests of market-ready technologies, but are instead field trials for various concepts needed to make 5G work. There is no doubt that AT&T will eventually replace LTE wireless with 5G wireless, but that transition is still many years in the future. The company is claiming to be testing 5G for the press release benefits – but these are not tests of a viable last mile technology – just tests that are moving lab concepts to early field trials.

AirGig. This one remains a mystery. AT&T says it will begin trialing the technology later this year with two power companies. There has been a little bit of clarification of the technology since the initial press release. This is not a broadband over powerline technology – it’s completely wireless and is using the open lines-of-sight on top of power poles to create a clear path for millimeter wave radios. The company has also said that they don’t know yet which wireless technology will be used to go from the poles into the home – they said the whole range of licensed spectrum is under consideration including the LTE frequencies. And if that’s the case then the AirGig is a fiber-replacement, but the delivery to homes would be about the same as WLL.

FTTP. Donovan referred to fiber-to-the-home as a trial, but by now the company understands the economics of fiber. The company keeps stretching the truth a bit about their fiber deployments. The company keeps saying that they have deployed fiber to 4 million homes, with 8 million more coming in the next three years. But the fact is they have actually only passed the 4 million homes that they can market to as is disclosed on their own web site. The twelve million home target was something that was dictated by the FCC as part of the settlement allowing the company to buy DirecTV.

We don’t know how many fiber customers AT&T has. They are mostly marketing this to apartment buildings, although there are residential customers around the country saying they have it. But they have not sold big piles of fiber connections like Verizon FiOS. This can be seen by looking at the steady drop in total AT&T data customers – 16.03 million in 2014, 15.78 million in 2015 and 15.62 million at the end of the third quarter of 2016. AT&T’s fiber is not really priced to be super-competitive, except in markets where they compete with Google Fiber. Their normal prices elsewhere on fiber are $70 for 100 Mbps, $80 for 300 Mbps and $99 for a gigabit.

OTT News, March 2017

There is a lot of activity going on with web-based video. There are offerings that are starting to look like serious contenders to traditional cable packages.

Comcast Integrates YouTube. Comcast has made a deal with Google to integrate YouTube into the Comcast X1 settop box. This follows last year’s announcement that Comcast is also integrating Netflix. Comcast also says they are working to integrate other SVOD platforms.

Comcast is making a lot of moves to keep themselves relevant for customers and to make the X1 box a key piece of electronics in the home. The box also acts as the hub for their smart home product, Xfinity Home.

One has to think that Comcast has worked out some sort of revenue sharing arrangements with Google and Netflix, although all details of these arrangements have not been reported. The most customer-friendly aspect of these integrations is that the Comcast X1 box is now voice-activated and customers can surf Netflix and YouTube by talking to the box.

Sling TV Adds More Sports. Sling TV has made another move that will make it attractive to more customers by adding the Comcast regional sports networks (RSNs) to their line-up. This includes CSN California, CSN Bay Area, CSN Chicago and CSN Mid-Atlantic. These networks carry a lot of unique sports content that is not easily available anywhere else on-line today. The networks carry pro basketball, pro baseball and a number of college sports. For example, CSN Bay Area is the home station for the popular Golden state Warriors. CSN Mid-Atlantic is the home station for the Baltimore Orioles.

I know in talking to my sports-centric friends that the narrow sports content on-line is the number one issue holding them back from switching to an OTT package. There are still other networks that Sling TV would need to add, like the Big Ten Network and the NFL Channel, to be a totally rounded sports provider. But they have already added a credible sports line-up that includes all the ESPN channels, the SEC Network, the ACC Network, NBA TV, the NHL Channel, the PAC12 Network and a few other sports networks like Univision TDN.

YouTube Launching an OTT Line-up. Cable TV just got another new OTT competitor. The new service is called YouTube TV and brings a fourth major OTT competitor along with Sling TV, PlayStation Vue, and DirecTV Now. The platform is going to launch sometime in the next few months, with no firm release date yet. The basic product will be $35 per month and allows customers to turn the service off and on at will.

YouTube TV will carry the typical network channels as well as ESPN, Disney, Bravo and Fox News – a line-up that sounds similar to its competition. The service will come with unlimited cloud DVR storage. It will allow 3 simultaneous streams per account and 6 user profiles per account. They will first launch in a few major urban markets (probably due to the availability of the local channels for various network channels).

If YouTube has any advantage in the marketplace it’s that they are becoming the preferred content choice for a lot of millennials. The company says they now are delivering over a billion hours per day of content. Millennials are leading the trend of cord cutters (and even more so of cord nevers), and if YouTube can tap that market they should do great.

Dish Network Predicts OTT will Replace Traditional TV. For the first time, Dish Networks Chairman and CEO said he thought that OTT programming is the real future of video. Until now the company, which owns Sling TV, has said that their product was aimed at bringing video to cord cutters.

But Sling TV and the other OTT products are getting a lot better. Sling TV now has over 100 channels that provide a wide set of options for customers. And these channels are not packed into a giant must-take line-up like traditional cable packages, and instead provide a number of smaller packages that a customer can add to the Sling TV base package. Sling TV and the other providers also make it easy for customers to add or subtract packages or come and go from the whole platform at will – something that can’t be done with cable companies.

Certainly Sling TV has made a difference for Dish. The company has been bleeding satellite customers and had customer losses for the last ten quarters. But the company had a small customer gain of 28,000 customers in the fourth quarter due to the popularity of Sling TV. The company does not report customers by satellite and OTT, so we don’t know the specific numbers.

Content Finally is King

One of the more common memes in our industry is the phrase “content is king.” This was first said by Sumner Redstone of Viacom in 1994 but made more famous by Bill Gates in 1996. The phrase has been used since then to describe how the creators of content have the power in our industry – be that programming or web content.

John Stankey, the CEO of AT&T Entertainment, recently emphasized this same concept in talking about the company’s planned merger with Time Warner. At the recent Mobile World Congress in Barcelona he said, “We just cannot envision a future where AT&T is relevant if we don’t directly participate in some of the water flowing through our pipes.”

All of the big ISPs have decided that content is key to their survival. Comcast already owns a mountain of programming, and after the merger with Time Warner, AT&T will be a content powerhouse as well. Verizon has climbed into the game with the acquisitions of AOL and Yahoo. There are web companies with the same philosophy. Netflix has built a new industry by creating new content. Google is pushing content heavily through YouTube. Amazon has started to create unique content and recently said they are going to make that a priority. Facebook is becoming a content force through Facebook Now.

I remember having this conversation with Derrel Duplechin of CCG back in 2000. We were asked by several clients to speculate about the future of the carrier industry and we foresaw that most carriers were likely on the path to eventually become what we called “dumb pipe” providers. I remember that this was a story that many of our clients did not want to hear.

We lived in a different carrier world in 2000. Most homes still had telephones and voice was the most profitable product for most carriers. The cable TV product that many of our clients sold then also had decent margins. But we predicted that both products would eventually sink in importance and in margins and that eventually most of our clients would earn most of their profits from broadband. We thought this would happen to all carriers, small and large, and we figured that the most profitable future companies would be those that found some other line of business other than just selling data pipes to end users.

We had some clients take this to heart and some of them have made a really good living by providing extra value to customers. For example, we have several clients who thrive by bringing a suite of products to businesses other than just plain connectivity. But for the most part, the majority of the ISP industry sells dumb pipes today. They compete with the speed of those pipes and with price and with good customer service – but the primary products (and the driver of most of the profits) are now data pipes.

The big companies like AT&T, Verizon and Comcast looked at that future and it scared them. It’s pretty obvious that if your only product is dumb pipes that your earnings are not going to continue to grow fast enough to satisfy Wall Street. This is probably what convinced Verizon to stop expanding their FiOS network. Both AT&T and Verizon got huge earnings boosts from expanding their cellular businesses, but that industry also seems to be heading towards the same plateau as landline ISPs – cell service is becoming a commodity.

So these big companies are now pursuing content because it looks to be the last area in our industry with the potential for significant bottom line growth. It’s going to be an interesting race to watch. Content providers have succeeded or failed over the years according to their ability to find smash hits. A huge hit movie or TV series can mean huge returns to the bottom line. But content providers that don’t create what the public wants to watch suffer badly in terms of stock prices and earnings. Being a content provider is not predictable in the same way as telecom.

Interestingly. AT&T, Verizon, and Comcast are now direct competitors of Facebook, Google, Amazon and Netflix. Content certainly is king, but content also brings the risk from competition. The companies that fall behind in this race are likely to be gobbled up by their more successful competitors. I find it extremely unlikely that all of these big companies will still be in existence in 10 years.

There is no real barrier to entry into the world of content creation other than having a pile of money. It’s likely that other big companies will join the content fray. But all of these companies are entering a world that is in big flux. For example, traditional video and web content might well be replaced by virtual and enhanced reality. The companies that succeed in content will have to spend a lot of money staying one step ahead of the competition, and my money is on the more nimble technology companies. Twenty years ago I would have been shocked to know that someday AT&T would have a CEO of Entertainment – and that may turn out to be the most important job in the corporation.

Unlimited Cellular Data Pricing

SONY DSCI recently wrote a blog about how all of the cellular companies are now offering unlimited data plans. Today I’m going to look at their plans in some detail to discuss what they really mean by “unlimited.”

AT&T. AT&T now has two unlimited plans. Unlimited Choice starts at $60 for one phone with unlimited voice, text and data. It’s $55 for a second line and $20 each for lines up to ten. There is an extra fee of $5 per month for one line or $10 for multiple lines if the customer doesn’t elect autopay. Data comes with lots of limits. Video is capped at 480p standard resolution. Total download speed is limited to 3 Mbps with video capped at 1.5 Mbps, regardless of the quality of the 4G stream available. And while there is no data cap, AT&T starts throttling data speeds for the month when a customer hits 22 GB of download. And last – and what will be a killer for most potential customers – it doesn’t allow tethering.

The Unlimited Plus plan starts at $90 for the first phone. It also includes a penalty for not using autopay. It undoes all of the speed restriction of the choice plan and can stream HD video. It also allows up to 10 GB per month for tethering. It has the same monthly cap of 22 GB before the data gets throttled. This still is not an alternative for home use because of the 10 GB cap on tethering. But it’s a good business travel plan. And a home user with a tablet might find this to be a good, if expensive, broadband alternative.

Verizon. Verizon’s unlimited plan is $80 for the first phone, $60 for a second, $22 for a third and $18 for a fourth. This also has unlimited voice and text. The data has a very unusual daily cap and speeds get throttled after hitting 500 MB download in a day. There is also a monthly cap of 22 GB, after which all data gets throttled. There is a 10 GB monthly allowance for tethering, with speeds throttled to 3G after hitting that cap. Verizon allows HD video streaming.

T-Mobile. T-Mobile’s plan is priced at $70 for the first phone, $30 for a second, $41 for a third and $19 for a fourth. This also has unlimited voice and text. There is a monthly cap of 28 GB after which data gets throttled. There is a 10 GB monthly allowance for tethering, with speeds throttled to 3G after hitting that cap. T-Mobile allows HD video streaming.

Sprint. Sprint’s plan is priced at $50 for the first phone, $40 for a second. But these are promotion prices and the company warns they will probably price to ‘market’ after March 31. This also has unlimited voice and text. There is a monthly cap of 23 GB after which data gets throttled. There is a 10 GB monthly allowance for tethering, with speeds throttled to 2G (which has been discontinued in much of the country) after hitting that cap. Note that at 2G you can’t even read email, so this is effectively a hard cutoff.  Sprint allows HD video streaming capped at 1080p quality.

Various Issues. There are activation fees to consider with some of the companies. AT&T and Sprint charge $25 and Verizon $30. T-Mobile has no activation fee. T-Mobile also includes all taxes and fees in its price, something that can be fairly expensive in some parts of the country.

None of these plans is truly “unlimited” and I won’t be shocked to see the Federal Trade Commission going after all of these carriers for advertising them that way. Certainly none of these are going to be a good alternative for home broadband, except perhaps for rural customers with no better alternative. But I think even rural users will find the cap on tethering and the throttling after a fairly stingy amount of download to be impossible to live with. It’s a shame because many rural homes using traditional cellular broadband have monthly bills of $500 to $1,000.

Interestingly, I just saw yesterday that some Wall Street analysts are slamming Verizon because they fear that their network cannot handle these new ‘unlimited’ plans. But as you can see these plans are not unlimited. They are effectively capped at 2 – 3 times the size of existing family plans, that that assumes that customers will use all of the allotted data-  which many will not. There is already plenty of excess capacity to handle this at the vast majority of cell sites. And this isn’t going to much hurt the cell sites that are already over-busy.

For customers that routinely go over the current cellular data caps these might be a great alternative. Current cellular data is priced at $10 per gigabyte and these plans have reduced data prices to a more affordable price under $2 – $3 per gigabyte for somebody that uses the full allowance. But compared to traditional plans these plans all have hard monthly caps – and while those caps are at 22 GB or higher, they are effectively hard caps since data gets throttled and becomes largely unusable after hitting the cap. These plans will all tease you into watching a lot of video and then penalize you heavily for watching too much.

The State of New York vs. Charter

Scale_of_justice_2_newEvery once in a while in this industry you come across a story about one of the big cable companies that just makes you shake your head. There is such a story right now where the New York State attorney general, Eric Schneiderman, has sued Charter on behalf of its 2.5 million data customers in the state.

The issue goes back to 2012 when the company was still Time Warner Cable. At that time there were a lot of complaints from customers saying that they were not getting the data speeds they were paying for. In 2013, in association with Internet speed tests conducted by the FCC, it was determined that Time Warner had widely deployed cable modems and WiFi routers that were not capable of delivering speeds of even 20 Mbps.

In July of 2013, Time Warner promised the FCC that it would replace and upgrade all customer modems in the state and would also make other system upgrades that would increase speeds, such as reducing the size of the neighborhood nodes.

Here is where the puzzling part comes in. The FCC never retested, which is normal, and instead relied on Time Warner’s promise that they would fix the problems and increase speeds. But it turns out that Time Warner didn’t make any of the promised upgrades. They didn’t replace customer modems. In fact, they routinely recycled the bad modems back into service when they were returned by customers.

Since then Time Warner (and now Charter) has advertised even faster speeds, yet none of the customer modems are able to deliver the speeds that the company is selling. The lawsuit says there are now over 250,000 customers who are paying for speeds between 200 Mbps and 300 Mbps, but who still have the old inadequate modems that get speeds under 20 Mbps.

To add insult to injury, the company has been charging $10 per month to customers to lease the old modems (at least that’s the current lease rate). Considering that these modems don’t generally cost the cable company even $100, these customers have paid enough to have replaced these modems multiple times since the problem was first caught.

Time Warner is also being accused in the lawsuit of manipulating the FCC speed tests in 2013 to show faster results. They did this by taking speed tests at times when there was not much demand on their networks, like the middle of the night.

Finally, the company has been accused of purposefully providing inadequate backbone so that Internet traffic was delayed and slowed down getting onto their network. This means they did not provide big enough data connections to the outside world for things like Netflix or for general Internet access.

Here is the lawsuit filing. It’s an interesting and easy read and is not overly technical. I know that big companies hate to spend capital dollars that they don’t think are necessary. But in this case they got caught providing old and inadequate modems five years ago and since then did nothing to fix the problems. We know from experience that even when companies are caught like this that they don’t usually undertake a crash repair program. But if Time Warner would have implemented some reasonable plan to upgrade the network and to replace the bad modems over time there probably would not be this big lawsuit today. What’s puzzling is how the whole management chain at the company decided to do nothing. They denied a direct FCC order and also continued to get piles of customer complaints.

The lawsuit does not name a specific amount of damages, but one has to think it’s going to be a big number. The lawsuit asks for ‘injunctive and equitable relief’, meaning the return of customer payments, as well as civil penalties, meaning extra damages. If Charter has the same kind of customer penetrations we see elsewhere with cable companies – 60% to 70% of the market – it’s going to be interesting to see how they find a jury for this trial.