This article in the New York Times cites predictions that businesses will cut down on travel by 20% to 50%. This will have a huge impact over time on the airline and hotel industries. As a lifelong road warrior, I recall the relief every year when the school year started back in September and airports returned mostly to business travelers. It will be interesting in the future if airports really get more deserted during the business-only travel months.
But the real boon for businesses from less travel will be lower expenses and increased productivity. I can’t add up the number of times that I traveled somewhere for a one or two-hour meeting – something that has now fallen off my radar. We’re going to replace rushing to make a flight with the use of broadband.
What is interesting is how hard we tried in the past to make video conferencing into an everyday thing. Everybody of my age remembers these AT&T commercials from 1993 that predicted that video conferencing, working remotely, digital books, and GPS navigation would become a part of daily life. Most of the predictions made by these commercials became a reality much sooner than common video calling. Whole new industries have been built around digital books, and GPS is seemingly built into everything.
The business world fought against video conferencing. I recall a client from 20 years ago who had invested in an expensive video conference setup and insisted on either meeting in person or holding a video conference. I recall the hassle of having to rent a local video conferencing center to talk to this client – but even then, I could see how that expense was far better than spending time a wasted day in an airport and a night in a hotel.
I don’t know how typical my workday is, but I probably average 3 hours per day on video calls. I always hated long telephone calls, but I like the experience of seeing who I’m talking to. It’s enabled creating real bonds with clients and colleagues as I talk to them multiple times through video chat compared to an occasional live meeting.
A few weeks ago, I wrote about the concept of broadband holding times to account for the fact that we are tying up broadband connections for hours with video chats or connecting to a work or school server. I’m not sure that we’ve fully grasped what this means for broadband networks. Most network engineers had metrics they used for estimating the amount of bandwidth required to serve a hundred or a thousand customers. That math goes out the door when a significant percentage of those customers are spending hours on video chats that use a small but continuous 2-way bandwidth connection.
We’re not likely to fully grasp what this means for another year until the pandemic is fully behind us, and companies settle into a new normal. I know I’m not going to be in airports in the future like I was in the past, and many people I’ve talked to feel the same way.