The number one concern I hear from most rural counties today is no longer broadband connectivity, but the availability of cellular connectivity. While there may be a few exceptions, I don’t know of any rural counties that have good cellular coverage. All that differs among counties is the degree to which they have poor coverage.

At one point, the FCC had a plan to subsidize more rural cell towers that it labeled as the 5G Fund for Rural America. In August 2024, the FCC adopted preliminary auction rules for distributing up to $9 billion to support new rural cell towers, while also issuing an NPRM that asked for industry feedback on several issues related to the new plan. This was going to be funded out of the Universal Service Fund, in what seems like a replacement use for the second round of RDOF that never happened.

Chairman Carr dissented from the 2024 FCC order, saying that he supported the idea of a reverse auction to build more rural cell towers, but he thought it was premature to announce the new plan until the FCC knew more about the disposition of the $42.5 billion in BEAD grants. He thought it was vital that any new rural towers have access to fiber.

Several big things have happened since August 2024. BEAD got delayed when the new administration completely changed the rules and made the states start over. The FCC has also decided to reexamine the Universal Service Fund from top to bottom, and if you read between the lines, the agency doesn’t seem to be a big fan of ongoing rural subsidies. Congress is also supposedly examining a major rework of the Universal Service Fund and said recently they should be able to propose specific legislation soon.

But the biggest change is that there is suddenly huge amounts of money being poured into creating a satellite-based cellular industry. The folks behind that effort are making claims that D2D (direct-to-device) technology will solve the rural cellular issue since everybody will have cell coverage. There are a lot of players suddenly in this space. Not surprisingly, SpaceX / Starlink already has hundreds of satellites in orbit and was recently approved to launch 15,000 satellites. AST SpaceMobile is partnering with AT&T and Verizon. Globalstar originally pioneered Apple’s SOS emergency test service and was recently acquired by Amazon, which recently applied for licenses for 5,105 satellites. Lynk Global has partnered with more than 45 cellular companies worldwide. EchoStar and Viasat have also announced plans to enter the market.

Today’s blog asks if the FCC is now assuming that the commercial sector will take care of the rural cellular issue so they can wash their hands of the issue. I find D2D to be intriguing, but there are still a lot of unanswered questions about D2D’s ability to substitute for local cellular service:

• Are the D2D providers really aiming to compete where there is no coverage today? SpaceX just paid an astonishing $8 billion for 800 MHz spectrum from Grain Management that is intended for D2D service. But this spectrum is intended to be used at terrestrial towers to reach customers, with the backhaul for the service provided by satellite. This might create a new cellular competitor in urban and suburban markets (or this might be more intended to bring competition to parts of the world where cellular is the only broadband technology). But this application won’t reach any rural customer who is already within range of a cell tower.
• Can’t Work Indoors. A cellphone transmits at under 0.5 watts of power – the maximum power level set by the FCC. Cell signals lose from 50% to 90% of the signal strength when passing through a wall. While that usually is enough power to reach a cell tower located within 2-3 miles of your house, it’s probably never going to be enough power to reach a satellite.
• Receiver Limits. Starlink is now achieving data speeds up to 300 Mbps download for home broadband. However, speeds will be far less for an outdoor cellphone due to the tiny size of the antennas. Receivers for Starlink range from 11.75 X 15.7 inches for the Starlink Mini to 22.7 X 20.1 inches for the higher-performance receiver. The typical cellphone has a receiver of around 6.5 X 7 millimeters, meaning that even the Starlink Mini receiver has 2,600 times more surface area for receiving a signal from the satellite than a typical cellphone.

It’s already clear from early tests that this technology is wonderful for providing a connection to 911 for somebody who is outdoors. It seems to work for voice calls. But that’s a far cry from this being a technology that would make rural cell coverage equivalent to urban cell coverage. It’s hard to see this supporting websites and videos, and even so, only outdoors. I fear D2D will deliver ‘good-enough’ connections to allow regulators to decide they don’t need to deal with the issue of rural cellular coverage. But folks who live in rural areas will understand the differences and won’t have much better coverage than they have today.