In what is bad news for many other ISPs, both T-Mobile and Verizon have plans to continue their aggressive growth of FWA cellular broadband. As a reminder, this is home broadband delivered from cell towers that mostly uses the same spectrum already being used at cell towers for cell service.
AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon have had unprecedented success with this new broadband product since it first launched in 2021. The following table shows the growth in FWA so far this year.
In the first two quarters of this year, the three carriers added almost 1.8 million customers, while big cable companies lost almost 500,000 customers, and big telcos saw a net gain of under 50,000 net new customers.
AT&T is the newest provider of FWA service and just getting serious about selling the service in 2023. AT&T does not provide FWA everywhere it has cell customers, and strategically uses FWA, mostly in rural markets, as a replacement technology when discontinuing copper service. AT&T continues to be focused on fiber expansion and has passed far more new locations with fiber in recent years than anybody else.
T-Mobile has been the most aggressive in deploying FWA broadband and now has over 6 million customers. T-Mobile says it’s goal is to reach 8 million customers by the end of 2026, which would require a continued growth of 400,000 new customers per quarter. T-Mobile recently announced longer-term plans to reach 12 million customers by the end of 2028 – which would mean stepping up customer acquisition to an average of 500,000 net new customers per quarter.
Verizon recently announced plans for aggressive FWA growth. The company says it will set a goal somewhere between 8 and 9 million customers by the end of 2027. This would mean average growth in the range of 275,000 to 350,000 customers per quarter – slower than the current rate of growth.
T-Mobile currently has over 1 million customers on a waiting list for FWA. Like Verizon, T-Mobile uses excess spectrum capacity at cell sites for FWA. Each company likely has an algorithm for each cell site to calculate the safe number of FWA customers that can be added without degrading cellular broadband service. Both carriers have said that they can’t justify building cell sites strictly for FWA service and only plan to deploy it at current or new cellular cell sites.
Verizon has been increasing FWA speeds in some markets by layering on C-band or millimeter wave spectrum for FWA. The advantage FWA has today is lower prices, but the product become formidable if download speeds can compete with fiber and cable companies.
If the three companies meet their growth goals, they will collectively have almost 20 million broadband customers in 2028 – almost as big as Charter or Comcast today. This growth is by far the biggest disruption of the traditional broadband industry, with FWA growth taking customers away from all other ISPs.
The real key to these growth plans is waiting to see if the public likes the FWA product and doesn’t go back to faster broadband alternatives. Reaching 10 million customers so quickly is impressive and unprecedented in the industry. But it’s no guarantee that they can grow at the same pace to reach 20 million customers.
I think what is being glossed over when people read these numbers is how strongly this confirms that people are generally looking for value over anything else.
I’d like to see how the people that are pushing the story that everyone needs a gig react when challenged directly on ‘they why are they chosing these <100Mbps during peak hours products'?
So a good solid 50 Mbps to the home actually does satisfy the majority of people. What happened to 100 Mbps is barely enough, we’re headed for gig to the home?
I mostly agree with the article, though there’s an important nuance to consider. Fixed wireless access (FWA) services that rely on cellular spectrum tend to be significantly less efficient than an average mobile phone in terms of spectrum use. Considering the high costs and limited availability of spectrum, this raises questions about FWA’s long-term business viability. However, if the FCC loosens spectrum regulations, it could enable greater business expansion and higher speeds in FWA networks.
It’s clear that the cellular carriers are using ‘excess’ spectrum capacity to feed FWA. It might be a very different product if they got a lot more mid-range spectrum.
Those figures mean TMO has more excess spectrum than others or they are trying to fill broadband offerings till they ramp up their fiber investments? AT&T and verizon are way ahead.
What makes TMO aggressive on FWA? more dense network?