Tag Archives: Benefit of the Bargain

Starlink Flexing Its Market Power

In a short period of time, Starlink has taken three actions that demonstrates the company’s growing market power. The companies market power will be strengthened with the impending merger between SpaceX and Elon Musk’s AI company, xAI. Analysts have estimated the combined companies could garner a market value over $1 trillion.

The first move from Starlink came on January 15 when the company updated its user Privacy Policy. The revised terms say that, unless a customer opts out, Starlink can use user data “to train our machine learning or artificial intelligence models”, and that user data could be shared with third-party collaborators without providing more details to customers.

This should be disturbing to customers, because this doesn’t just mean sharing details of emails. In today’s broadband world, it could mean sharing video images, voice prints, and the giant amount of private information that an ISP can learn about its customers if it is looking.

Starlink’s second big move came when it sent a document to State Broadband Offices where Starlink is a tentative winner of BEAD grants. Starlink asked that LEO providers be excused from many of the BEAD obligations that will apply to other grant winners. The Starlink communication included a veiled threat that the company could pull out of BEAD if SBOs don’t meet its suggested terms.

Among the suggested changes, Starlink payments would not be linked to adding subscribers, and it would get 50% of BEAD funding up front and the rest over a specified schedule. Starlink would not have to provide financial reporting or provide any documentation about how it spends the grant funding. Starlink wants to be excused from speed test requirements since it can’t guarantee that subscribers have installed the satellite receiver properly. Starlink also wants to be excused from insurance and labor requirements.

On January 30, SpaceX asked the FCC for the ability to launch 1 million new satellites to create a giant orbital data center for AI. These satellites would be placed between 310 and 1,240 miles above Earth, in narrow 30-mile bands that would leave room to deconflict with other companies with similar goals. SpaceX says the giant satellite constellation is needed as the first step for humanity to become a Kardashev II-level civilization that fully harnesses the Sun’s power, while also providing enough AI capacity to serve billions of people. FYI, a Kardashev II-level civilization is one that fully harnesses the total energy output from its parent star. SpaceX says putting data centers in space is the most efficient way to meet the growing energy demands of AI data centers.

The constellation would use laser communications between satellites and would communicate back to Earth using Starlink’s current broadband constellation.  SpaceX says it could launch the data center satellites at a rapid pace using its new Starship launch vehicle.

Announcing these three things within a month shows a company that is feeling emboldened enough by market power to act as it wishes. If a terrestrial ISP openly said it will use customer data to train AI, it would risk being shunned in the market, but Starlink operates in many places where there are no other competitive options. I wonder how safe Starlink customers will feel about their data even if they opt out of sharing it with Starlink.

It’s going to be interesting to see how State Broadband Offices react to the Starlink demand for easier BEAD terms. Many of the SBOs didn’t want to make big awards to LEO satellite providers, and were coerced by  NTIA to do so with the Benefit of the Bargain rules. It’s not unimaginable that some States will outright reject Starlink’s request, which could lead to some interesting fights between States and NTIA.

The request to launch 1 million satellites could be a stunt to boost interest in the upcoming IPO and merger. Or it could be real. This FCC clearly favors satellite technology, but even for them, a request to launch 1 million satellites has to be an extreme request.

Broadband Turkeys of 2025

This is my first-ever list of annual broadband turkey awards, which I’m awarding for the worst industry events of 2025. I’ve never done this before, because there have never been enough negative events in a single year to make a list like this. I hope I won’t be able to make a list again at the end of 2026.

5 – Major Cloud Outages

There has been an increasing occurrence of major cloud outages this past year, including outages from Cloudflare, Google Cloud, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). It seems like the outages are growing in severity and breadth due to the growing concentration of the operation of the web into a handful of companies. At the same time, each of these providers also seems to be pursuing the consolidation of their networks into a small number of core data hubs. This combination now means that something as simple as a DNS error can get magnified into a major outage affecting multiple industries and causing billions in damages in a short time. This goes on the turkey award list since every one of us is at the mercy of a prolonged broadband outage caused at some distant data center.

4 – Congress Determining Spectrum Policy

In the Big Beautiful Bill, Congress seemingly usurped spectrum policy by mandating that 800 megahertz of mid-range spectrum be set aside for new FCC auctions. This undoes the historical deliberative process that balanced the needs of the many users of spectrum. This was seemingly done as a way to justify cutting taxes elsewhere, but the real reason behind this new mandate was the cell industry lobbyists doing an end run around everybody else in a land grab for some of the most valuable spectrum. This goes on the turkey award list since the FCC will likely have to raid the spectrum needed for other vital purposes like rural broadband and WiFi.

3 – BEAD Awards to Amazon LEO

In a process that is so absurd that it’s hard to discuss without laughing, we’ve allocated federal grant funding to serve at least 700,000 rural homes to an ISP that currently has no broadband infrastructure, and that has never served a single broadband customer. This might eventually turn out not to be a disaster, but this has to be one of the oddest things that has ever happened in the industry. This goes on the turkey awards list, well . . . because.

2 Killing the Digital Equity Act Funding

The Administration and the NTIA killed funding for grants from the Digital Equity Act, seemingly because the title of the law included the word “equity”. The grants were to tackle digital inclusion and specifically were aimed at making sure that people have access to computers and other devices and that they learn how to use them to increase digital literacy in the country. This decision is hard to understand at a time when the same federal government is forcing the public to interface electronically with government agencies. This same government is also saying that the future of the country is AI. This goes on the turkey award list because we seemed to have made a major policy decision based on misunderstanding the meaning of a word in the title of the law.

 1 Benefit of the Bargain

This was the process of the BEAD grant process that cut funding for broadband grants in half. It’s the most poorly-named process ever in the broadband industry since it isn’t a benefit to the many people who will no longer get a fast broadband solution, and it’s not a bargain for anybody that I can identify. The award goes equally to whoever came up with the plan to cut the BEAD infrastructure grants in half, and to the person who came up with this dreadful name.

Final BEAD Rules Released

The guessing game is over since NTIA has released the final rules about how the new BEAD grant process will work. Unfortunately, it’s still impossible to make any guesses about the percentage of BEAD that will be awarded to fiber or other technologies. There have been both optimistic and pessimistic predictions of awards for fiber written in the last few weeks, and as you’ll see below, there is still no way to guess who is right.

There are a few things we know. It’s clear that a lot of State Broadband Offices (SBOs) still want to maximize the amount of awards made to fiber. We also know that overall eligible BEAD locations are being reduced by allowing a map challenge from WISPs that use unlicensed spectrum. Preliminary estimates are that as many as 15% of BEAD passings might be removed from the grant process, but we’ll have to wait and see if WISPs use this challenge.

NTIA has specified the process for SBOs to make proposed grant awards. The highlight of that process is as follows:

  • SBOs must start over, and all ISPs will be invited to bid in a single Benefit of the Bargain grant round (this is probably the dumbest new industry term I can recall).
  • SBOS can designate a project as a Priority Broadband Projects, meaning projects that get the first crack at funding (see more below). In areas where more than one priority project is eligible for funding, the ISP asking for the lowest amount of grant funding per passing wins, with the caveat that an SBO can award the grant to a project that is no more than 15% higher than the lowest bidder.
  • Areas with no priority projects are directly awarded to the ISP asking for the lowest amount of funding.
  • SBOs are given a number of options to find ISPs willing to serve locations that nobody has requested to serve.

Priority Broadband Projects. An SBO gets to decide if a given grant application is going to be designated as a Priority Broadband Project. To meet this requirement, a proposed project has to 1) be able to deliver 100/20 Mbps service today with a latency under 100 milliseconds, 2) be able to scale over time to meet evolving connectivity needs of households and businesses, and 3) support the deployment of 5G and successor wireless technologies and other advanced services.

The second requirement implies that an SBO can determine some future goal faster than 100/20 Mbps that applicants must agree to eventually meet. The new rules don’t specify how to do this. I’ve already seen a few SBOs suggesting ultimate speeds between 200 and 300 Mbps download. Faster future speed requirements might be a reason for not giving satellite a priority designation, but WISPs would likely qualify.

The last test for supporting 5G is a harder hurdle to satisfy. It’s clear that building last-mile fiber supports 5G and future wireless technologies, because new 5G towers or repeaters can be placed anywhere in a last-mile fiber network. This will be harder for a WISP to guarantee. A WISP might be able to meet this requirement if they are building a BEAD network that includes fiber backhaul to towers instead of using wireless backhaul. A WISP that isn’t proposing to build some fiber is going to have a challenge to meet this requirement.

The bottom line is that it should be easy to designate last-mile fiber projects as priority. WISPs have more of a challenge in being designated as a priority project, and I expect some WISPs will achieve this designation and others won’t, depending on the proposed network and specific technology. It seems to be easy to exclude satellite service from the priority designation.

NTIA Taking an Active Role in BEAD Awards. There is a new surprise rule that means that tentative grants awarded using the above rules might still not be final. NTIA has made it clear to SBOs that it must be kept in the loop during the entire grant process. The ultimate touchpoint is that NTIA wants to see and approve every proposed grant award.

There is no end to the ways that NTIA could exercise this power. The folks making optimistic predictions for fiber awards could be right and NTIA could elect to let SBOs call the shots and could rubber-stamp most proposed grants.

However, there has been a lot of speculation that Commerce wants to significantly reduce the size of the $42.5 billion program, and having the final approval might be the mechanism for lowering grant outlays. NTIA might set an arbitrary cap on the amount if BEAD per passing for fiber awards. NTIA might veto grants made for fiber if a WISP or satellite provider offers a lower price for the same area, which would largely undo the priority areas designation. NTIA might override proposed grant awards in blue states but not red states, in large states but not small ones, or for small ISPs but not big ones. NTIA could decide that Starlink gets no grants, if we are to believe the current spat between Elon Musk and the administration.

Unless somebody has inside knowledge of NTIA’s intentions for awarding grants, it’s impossible to guess what NTIA might do with its power to approve grant awards. I’m done guessing the amount of fiber that will be built by BEAD. At this point, I think we’ll have to wait until September to see what pops out of the BEAD award process.