It looks to me like history is repeating itself. We’re seeing the same hype cycle for 6G that we saw for 5G. The big push for 5G was mounted on several fronts. Telecom vendors preached the wonderful new features that 5G would bring to the market. The big cellular carriers got on board and pushed for 5G as the easiest path to get the FCC to award them new spectrum. To be fair to the carriers, they definitely needed new spectrum because the 3G/4G networks were becoming badly overloaded. The government was brought on board to push for 5G with the story line that the U.S. was losing the 5G war to the Chinese.

5G proponents promised a lot of amazing improvements, which were largely dependent on two claims. First was that 5G would bring gigabit speeds that were ten times faster than 4G through the use of millimeter wave spectrum and new technologies like network slicing. There was a promise that latency would fall to less than 1 millisecond, significantly better than fiber. The hype for 5G was over-the-top. 5G was going to bring us self-driving cars powered by ubiquitous 5G networks along every road. 5G would enable doctors to perform surgery remotely from across the country. 5G was going to fuel an explosion of smart factories that would bring complex manufacturing back to the U.S. 5G speeds were going to eliminate the need for investing in expensive fiber networks.

We’re starting to see the same hype cycle starting for 6G. The carriers have been making a huge pitch over the last year to get more spectrum, and have already won the first half of that battle when the H.R. 1 legislation instructed the FCC to find 800 MHz of new mid-range spectrum for the carriers. The lead-up to that bill included policy lobbying claiming that the U.S. is losing the battle for 6G to the Chinese (sound familiar?).

Vendors are also leading the charge again. It’s not hard to understand their motivation since they will benefit tremendously from a new round of major upgrades to cell site electronics. When vendors make claims of future technologies, it’s as much to lobby the carriers as it is any policymakers. Today’s blog talks about the claims of upcoming technologies being made by Hemanth Sampath, Vice President of Engineering at Qualcomm in an interview with FierceNetwork.  In the interview, Sampath was asked about the user experience he expects to become mainstream in the next 5-10 years. His response not only requires a nationwide upgrade to 6G but also would mean a ubiquitous, constant connection between devices and AI data centers.

Sampath envisions a migration during the coming decade away from today’s technology that is app-based, and smartphone-centric or screen-centric. He believes we’ll quickly migrate to what he calls a more natural environment where people will pair smart glasses and a smartwatch to interact with AI agents. He said, “instead of just carrying one device like a phone, you’ll now have multiple devices that you’ll be carrying and you’ll be able to seamlessly work across these different devices by speaking to them, or the glasses see what you see.”

He admits that existing 5G can’t enable that future and that we’ll need an upgrade to 6G, which will have “the extra capacity, the foundational technologies to squeeze more capacity in the existing bands as well as provide new spectrum”. He believes new 6G standards will enable better AI-friendly protocols.

Along with 6G, his vision means that users would be constantly connected to a digital twin in the cloud that will process the inputs from smart glasses and other devices. A constant connection to an AI datacenter will be needed so that computing is done in the cloud to protect the battery life of personal devices.

It’s a bold vision, and one that will require huge capital investments from cellular carriers. The carriers had no choice but to make the upgrades to 5G to prevent a collapse of the 4G network. But in doing so, carriers realized that there was very little new revenue to be derived from increasing cellular bandwidth and capacity. The carriers recognized this quickly and all stopped far short of implementing the full set of 5G features. Carriers are going to be skeptical about making huge investments that depend on millions of people willing to foot the monthly bill that would enable Sampath’s vision. The one wildcard in the vision is that AI companies will support the idea, because just like the cell carriers, they are searching for a recurring revenue to support AI.