It seems like everybody I talk to has a different prediction on the forward trajectory of BEAD grant spending. The reality is that nobody has a handle on this yet since the people who will be making these decisions are not going to be in a position to do so until sometime next year.  While this doesn’t exactly make a bingo card, it’s a wild range of possibilities. I’m also curious to hear from readers if I’ve missed any likely possibilities.

Nothing Will Change. Louisiana has announced grant awards and a few more states are likely to do so soon. A lot of states will have open grant portals over the next two months. Since the grants are finally moving, BEAD will be allowed to play out.

NTIA Puts BEAD on Hold. A new NTIA leader puts everything on hold to give Congress time to consider changes.

BEAD Proceeds as Planned, but Implementation Made Easier. NTIA will let the current grant process move forward, but Congress / NTIA will kill a lot of the implementation provisions before it’s time to build the networks.

States that Haven’t Made Awards Will Be Pressured to Give More to Satellite. NTIA will let the grant process continue but will change the high-cost area rules to force more funding for satellite.

Even States That Made Awards Will Have to Revise for More Satellite. Every State, including those that already announced grants, will have to reshuffle to award high-cost locations for satellite.

Allocation Dollars by State Will Be Reshuffled. There has been a lot of grumbling that some states got too much money and others not nearly enough. Congress could grab all extra funding, known as non-deployment funds, and send it to the states that were shorted in the original allocation.

Non-Deployment Funds Will Be Clawed Back. All BEAD funds not specifically needed for BEAD infrastructure will be returned to Treasury.

BEAD is Repurposed for Satellite and Little Else. The size of BEAD funding is significantly reduced, and most of the smaller fund goes for satellite.

BEAD is Completely Killed. Congress declares that satellite broadband coverage is ubiquitous and the country no longer has a digital divide. They cancel BEAD completely. There are those who argue that the funding has already been irrevocably given to states, so this would result in a big state/federal fight over claw backs.

Future Digital Equity Grants Will Get Cancelled. NTIA will announce some digital equity grants before January 20, but other future State and federal grants will be canceled.

All Digital Equity Grants will Be Cancelled. All digital equity grants will be canceled. Some of this money has already been given to states, so another big fight.