I’ve been peppered with questions about the impact of the change of administration on the BEAD grant program. I don’t have any better crystal ball than anybody else. But it’s not hard to speculate on the kinds of changes that might come.

There are a few facts that should be considered in any speculation. First, while the BEAD program has taken a long time, a lot of states will have open grant portals and will be reviewing grant applications before the inauguration. This doesn’t mean those grant applications can’t be shelved, but if one of the goals is to spend the money quickly, that could be a consideration. The second is that it’s likely that the decision-makers at the NTIA are already bailing, and the agency will be emptying out. That’s significant because the NTIA has been micromanaging the BEAD process, which plays a big part in the slowness of the program. I’m not sure what States with open issues at NTIA will be able to accomplish – it seems unlikely for any temporary administrators to go out on a limb to make tough calls.

What are some of the possible paths for BEAD:

More BEAD for Satellite Broadband. With Elon Musk being part of the administration, it seems inevitable that satellite broadband will get a bigger piece of the BEAD pie. Recall that the NTIA had already opened the door to Starlink in BEAD, but the process was voluntary for states. There are a whole lot of easy ways to include satellite, with the easiest being to assign all high-cost areas to the company. But it will likely be more complicated than that.

Changing the BEAD Rules. A group of Senators have been complaining about BEAD rules for more than a year.  The complaints against BEAD range from the way the money was assigned to states, the requirement in many states for low broadband rates, the big emphasis on building fiber, the requirement for prevailing wages, and using BEAD funding to build fiber to locations owned by the wealthy. Some of the things the Senators don’t like are baked into the BEAD legislation and would need Congress to change. There are two paths I can foresee for changing other rules. The first is to put the program on hold to incorporate any rule changes. The other option would be to tell ISPs about pending changes and to deal with them when BEAD grant contracts are negotiated.

Spend the Money Faster. One of the current criticisms about BEAD I keep hearing is that money won’t flow until late 2025. That is due to an NTIA requirement that a State must find a solution for every location before any grants can be awarded. Get rid of that rule and grants could be awarded and money could start flowing in the first quarter. The other way to speed up the spending is to do away with environmental studies for any project that will build fiber in existing public rights-of-way.

Cut the Size of the Program. I’ve seen some speculation about clawing back BEAD funding – which means not making the grant awards and keeping the money in the federal coffers. Industry insiders think broadband is too important for this to happen. However, if there is a big political movement to undo President Biden’s signature accomplishment, then infrastructure spending of all types could be curtailed, and it’s naïve to think that broadband spending couldn’t get swept into a bigger effort to cut spending. It’s not hard to imagine cutting the program to $10 billion, giving the money to Starlink, and declaring rural broadband to be solved.

Do Nothing. There is always a chance that no changes will be made to BEAD and it will play its course this year. But this seems unlikely with $42 billion in spending dangling for the taking. At the end of the day, any changes to be BEAD will be about who gets the money.