The Affordable Connectivity Program lapsed in May of this year. At the time the program ended there were more than 13 million ACP recipients getting a discount on a cellphone plan and 10 million getting a discount on landline broadband. Charter had fully embraced ACP and was reported to have over half of the landline ACP participants.

There were dire predictions at the end of the ACP that many millions of households would drop landline broadband since they could no longer afford it. For example, a survey conducted by the Benton Institute in June reported that 13% of ACP recipients would be forced to drop home broadband. The Benton survey showed that as many as 43% of low-income homes are subscription vulnerable, meaning they struggle to pay a broadband bill.

Any immediate impact of the end of ACP was softened as many ISPs extended ACP benefits for a few months out of their own pockets in the hope that Congress would pass legislation to continue the plan. That likely pushed any noticeable impact from ACP out until late summer.

Many ISPs also offered an alternative low-income plan for qualified customers. It’s possible these low-income plans have enabled households to stay connected.

• Charter kept its Spectrum Internet Assist plan that offers 50 Mbps for $24.99, with the speed for an extra $5.
• AT&T continued its Access from AT&T that provides 100 Mbps on fiber for $30.
• Comcast kept its Internet Essentials plan that provides 50 Mbps for $9.95.
• Cox kept its Connect2Compete plan for households with students that provides 100 Mbps for $9.95 and $30 for other households.
• Mediacom offers its Xtreme Connect plan for $28.99 per month, which is reduced to $14.99 for homes with students.

We got a glimpse into the impact of the end of ACP recently when Comcast announced third quarter financial results. Comcast reported that it lost 96,000 net customers in the quarter as a result of ACP, and without the ACP losses the company would have experienced a tiny gain of 9,000 customers. As a side note, this adds to the mystery of where FWA carriers are finding customers, since FWA carriers gained 913,000 customers in the third quarter.

Charter is more of a puzzle. The company announced recently that it lost 113,000 customers in the third quarter. Charter estimated that it lost 200,000 ACP customers, and without that loss it would have had a net positive gain of 87,000 customers for the quarter. If there any validity to the results of the Benson survey, Charter might be expected to eventually lose as many as 650,000 customers due to the end of ACP. Perhaps that will come to pass, and perhaps this is just the first set of losses, with other customers trying to hang on to broadband. The Charter gains after accounting for ACP is also a mystery when you consider the big gains for the FWA carriers in the third quarter. Maybe part of that answer to Charter’s growth comes from adding customers as a result of construction in RDOF and areas funded by state broadband grants.

On a national scale, there doesn’t seem to be a big customer drop as predicted by various surveys. If 13% of ACP recipients (1.3 million households) dropped broadband, it would be obvious in the quarter-to-quarter customer counts of big ISPs – and it’s not.

I think it’s more likely that the results of the end of ACP will be more subtle, spread over time, and be harder to notice. While some homes likely dropped immediately, many have likely held on with one of the low-income alternatives offered by ISPs. Homes that find they can’t sustainably afford broadband will drop off over time and likely not make a noticeable ripple in the national numbers.

The real victims of the end of ACP are customers of ISPs that have been building broadband networks in low-income neighborhoods or tribal areas and that relied on ACP payments to make a business case. I expect to hear stories over the next year of some of these ISPs having to shut the door.