A large majority of ISPs seeking BEAD grants will be financing matching funds using loans. Matching funds are the contributions expected from ISPs – a 75% grant means 25% in matching funds. Very few ISPs carry enough cash on hand to consider using equity to pay for broadband expansion. It’s possible that banks might require a small ISP to provide a small amount of equity, so the ISP has some skin in the game – but most matching funds will be borrowed.
This contrasts significantly with large telcos and cable companies that will be pursuing BEAD grants. It’s likely that most giant ISPs will be financing grants with equity. Using equity makes a gigantic difference in the approach to considering BEAD grants.
Below is a chart that is based on a real rural broadband market. The grant opportunity would bring fiber broadband to 2,700 locations for a total investment of $30.7 million. That’s a cost per passing of a little less than $11,400.
The following chart assumes that ISPs would seek a 75% grant and require a 25% match. The graph looks at the method of financing the matching funds – and ranges from 100% bank loan to 100% equity.
This graph demonstrates the huge benefit of using equity financing. The bottom blue line shows the expected accumulated cash for the small ISP that would use debt to cover the grant matching. For many years, the project just barely breaks even, but over twenty years, the project eventually accumulates over $2 million in cash.
An ISP that can finance with equity will generate far more cash. An ISP that could use 100% equity would accumulate over $16 million in cash over 20 years. The extra cash comes from the savings on debt payments over the life of the project.
This chart demonstrates a few things. First, it explains why ISPs that will be using equity can consider building in rural areas. In places where an ISP using debt financing can barely keep its head above water, an equity-funded ISP can generate significant cash.
The second benefit is that an ISP using equity can win the BEAD grant by accepting less than a 75% grant. In this example market, the ISP using debt financing cannot consider accepting less than a 75% grant. If they take a smaller grant the project will lose money every year. However, an ISP using equity could easily accept a 60% or 65% grant – which would almost certainly win the grant if competing against an ISP using debt.
I’ve said for years that the big ISPs are mostly going to go to the big ISPs, and funding is perhaps the major reason for this. But other grant rules also favor big companies over small ones.
But there is one more issue to consider that makes me wonder why the big ISPs are pursuing BEAD. An ISP that would use 100% equity for this particular project would see a return on Investment (ROI) over ten years of 19% and over 20 years of 88%. That is considerably lower than the returns the big ISP could earn by instead building fiber in larger communities. And those returns will drop significantly if the ISP accepts less than a 75% grant.
I’ve wondered since the day the BEAD grants were announced why big ISPs would pursue rural grants. It’s just as hard for them to service rural customers as it is for smaller ISPs. Rural BEAD projects will not earn the same kind of return that big ISPs get from investing elsewhere, and they are taking on serving areas that require a lot more work.
In many cases, the reasons for pursuing rural grants are likely strategic rather than economic. For example, Charter and Comcast seem to be panicking about the prospect of losing broadband customers, and pursuing rural markets can help to soften the losses. The big telcos like Frontier, Brightspeed, and Windstream already operate in rural areas and want to claim monopoly areas again. But in a decade, all of these companies will be complaining to the FCC about how expensive it is to operate in rural areas – and they’ll have their hands out asking for subsidies.