I keep seeing articles or podcasts every week speculating on what the new administration and Congress might change in the $42.5 billion BEAD grant program. This all seems like speculation to me since only a few people really know what might happen, and I don’t think they are talking. I don’t think any of the pundits know any more about what will happen to BEAD than what I included in a tongue-in-cheek blog last year that included a BEAD bingo card.
There is one thing that definitely has occurred. A large chunk of the industry that was expecting to participate in BEAD is largely on hold.
That obviously includes the many ISPs that have filed or plan to file BEAD applications. There is a huge amount of speculation that any significant changes to BEAD will mean repeating the BEAD application processes in the three states that have already announced awards and the twenty-plus with open BEAD grant windows.
While State Broadband Offices are marching forward with the BEAD process, they are all spending a lot of energy speculating on what they might have to rework – and worrying that they’ll not have enough money to do this all a second time.
The group feeling the most pain are the vendors expecting to sell to BEAD grant winners. This group already had a let-down when many of them guessed at the beginning of 2024 that there would be BEAD grants made last year. They now see the process entering April 2025 with no idea of when grants will be made and when ISPs might start ordering equipment. The one thing they are now seeing is that the money might be finally get released for a lot of states at the same time instead of BEAD awards dribbling out over a year.
Another group that is getting very concerned is elected officials in counties across the country. A lot of counties devoted significant resources participating in the BEAD process. Many states gave counties some power in choosing BEAD winners by giving a lot of grant points for local endorsement and local funding. A lot of counties have made broadband grants to ISPs that are contingent on them winning BEAD – and many of those grants are from ARPA funding that has a ticking time clock and expiration date. There are also a lot of rumors flying around that the federal government might claw back unspent APRA funds.
Everybody is on hold for the big decision of how much BEAD funding will go to satellite. Will it be 5%, 10%, 20%, 50%, or 80%? I’ve heard industry pundits making all of these guesses. That split is vitally important to both the ISPs and the vendors. The group most worried about this is local elected officials, who almost universally want fiber built in their counties.
The other big question that has everybody in knots is how much of the process can be changed by NTIA versus what needs to come from Congress. There is legislation still in the early stages in the House that addresses the issues, with other lawmakers drafting alternate ideas. While Congress could act quickly on this if they want to, they have a lot of other big issues on their plate right now.
Interestingly, the first Congressional bill on the issue is called the SPEED Act, but none of this is feeling very speedy. But who knows? Edicts could come down quickly and State Broadband Offices could issue grants quickly if there isn’t a lot of paperwork involved in reshuffling the rules. Meanwhile, my original BEAD bingo card is still intact.
The tables have turned. Normally government meddling in ISP stuff hurts us small guys that can’t afford or don’t have any interest in taking government money. They demand reports from us that are worthless and then give money to big players to overbuild us. Now all the big ISP’s, the local government branches, and the vendors that play the government game are the ones hurting. Meanwhile it’s business as usual for us that ignore government offers. In fact, we’re investing more than ever because of the void that is developing. It makes us look great as were the only ones moving in the area while everyone else is holding off waiting for that free government milk shake.
agreed, since we’re not ‘waiting’ on a check to be cut, we’re just plowing forward.
Pretty right. Any company formed for the purpose of BEAD grants, or any company depending on BEAD is in trouble. DZS, an excellent equipment provider, just declared bankruptcy. They desperately needed BEAD to occur.
I wouldn’t even lean to hard on ‘small ISP’. Any ISP that is self sufficient and builds with it’s own money.
And similarly, small ISPs who get free money become government contractors in the worst sense of the word.
The cost to run bids does heavily favor large operators though.
However, if you’re ISP can’t afford a couple grand to prepare the bids and is on the verge of dying then they SHOULD NOT get the money. ie, this money shouldn’t be a life-line for their ailing finances.
This harkens back to a previous blog post about keeping BEAD fiber.
just to catch people up, I fully support BEAD funds going to build long-term assets. I would focus it mostly on long haul and middle mile fiber. That could feed gpon or docsis or wireless. Most of our connectivity issues are bottlenecks getting middle-mile to communities IMO.
I mean they’re openly stating they want to repurpose huge swaths of funding to throw money at Elon Musk’s congested, expensive, ozone-layer depleting satellite broadband service. we know that. They’re not being subtle about it after they feel (falsely) he was unfairly shortchanged by RDOF.
I wouldn’t even lean to hard on ‘small ISP’. Any ISP that is self sufficient and builds with it’s own money.
And similarly, small ISPs who get free money become government contractors in the worst sense of the word.
The cost to run bids does heavily favor large operators though.
However, if you’re ISP can’t afford a couple grand to prepare the bids and is on the verge of dying then they SHOULD NOT get the money. ie, this money shouldn’t be a life-line for their ailing finances.
I know of many companies which spent thousands on engineering in order to make an appropriate bid TWO years ago. This timing is killing smaller ISP’s, which don’t have the budget for another bid prep. The numbers have all changed. Start over!
Government money makes fake markets. The money a smaller ISP spends on bid prep is real money. Take that real money and invest it in servicing the real market (assuming there is one in their area) and you have a successful business. I am sure there are edge cases and justifiable reasons for some areas, but for the most part, fake money makes fake markets.
Have you seen this Jon Stewart video? Painfully true!
https://www.foxnews.com/media/jon-stewart-visibly-exasperated-hearing-about-arduous-process-get-build-back-better-government-grants
This conversation busts on the time line, which many of us didn’t like. But the conclusion of the discussion was that the whole program is a waste, which is not close to being true. These are two folks who haven’t a clue about the condition of rural broadband. As much as we fault BEAD, if it’s used like intended, it would fix a lot of the rural broadband problem in thousands of counties.
As an operator covering a physical large chunk of rural area, my opinion is that BEAD and previous funding is a disaster based on their inherent design. There is no ‘used like intended’ that works.
The state that many rural areas is in stems directly from this model. Large companies simply DO NOT BUILD unless they get government money. Smaller operators can’t afford to build long and mid haul fiber to communities.
The gap that needs cross right now is mid-mile to long haul fiber to community vacinities. The last mile is ready for competition.
And to that point, BEAD is another design for single vendor markets that deteriorate without competition. There’s so much life left in the copper DSL plants with relatively minor and cheap upgrades to g.fast at the street ped (fiber fed) but the government isn’t paying to upgrade those so they… drum roll…. never get updated by big companies that only expand with government money because they know it’s coming.