Some big ISPs have big plans for more fiber expansion. I gleaned the following planned future fiber passings from various quotes from the ISPs in the second half of 2024. These ISPs have plans to build the following fiber passings by the end of 2029 or sooner.
- AT&T – 21 million
- T-Mobile/ Metronet – 3.5 million
- T-Mobile/Lumos – 3.4 million
- Frontier – 3 million
- Brightspeed – 1.7 million
- Verizon – 1.5 million
- Cox – 1 million
These numbers don’t count the plans of numerous smaller fiber overbuilders that have aggressive expansion plans.
The magnitude of these numbers amaze me because of the history of fiber overbuilding. The two biggest overbuilders have been Verizon FiOS and AT&T. Both companies have always been extremely cost-conscious in deciding where to build fiber.
Verizon was famous for its discipline about where it built FiOS. The company clearly had an internal cost target, and the D.C. suburbs are a patchwork of neighboring subdivisions with and without FiOS that can only be explained by looking at the cost per passing to build the fiber.
AT&T has done the same. I’ve followed AT&T’s expansion in various communities, and the company has built fiber over the last five years where the cost to do so was the lowest. A lot of the AT&T expansion was done by overlashing fiber onto existing copper telephone wires.
A few of the companies on the list above are following that same model. It seems likely that as Frontier and Brightspeed extend fiber in the legacy telephone areas, they will first build the areas with the lowest cost. I will not be surprised to find in a few years that these companies have built only those parts of communities where the construction costs are the lowest. That kind of discipline is the best use of limited capital dollars. Cox and other cable companies have the same option to expand fiber by overlashing on existing cables.
The expansion plan by AT&T perplexes me. Jeff McElfresh, AT&T’s chief operating officer was quoted in Fierce Network in December saying that the company has 29 million fiber passings at the end of 2024 and plans to grow to 50 million by the end of 2029.
It seems likely to me that the 29 million existing fiber passings were mostly done in neighborhoods with the lowest costs in the AT&T footprint. In my own city I’ve driven around and looked at AT&T’s claimed fiber passings, and most are overlashed onto copper wires. I assume AT&T has been using an expansion metric that considers the availability of overlashing plus the density of homes.
Over the years I’ve heard many folks who believe that the big ISPs build strictly based on demographics – and perhaps that is the third part of the AT&T equation on where to build. But I see AT&T fiber in neighborhoods with huge homes as well those with small bungalows. At least in this city, it looks like construction cost is more important than demographics.
Every overbuilder has its own business model and a target construction cost. I know smaller overbuilders who say they can’t make a business case if construction costs are more than $3,000 per passing. For years, AT&T and Verizon touted overbuilding costs below $1,000 per passing.
It seems to me that for AT&T to meet its target of 50 million passings it is now willing to spend more per passing than in the past. Perhaps that willingness is based on the success the company has in converting customers to fiber in overbuilt neighborhoods. It also seems likely that the company is banking on the economy of scale savings from increasing the size of the fiber business. AT&T now has a new motivation, which is to cut folks off copper to cut down on maintenance and backoffice costs. Maybe the net savings from shutting down copper networks is the new factor in the AT&T metrics for where to build fiber.
Only AT&T knows the details behind its decision to expand rapidly. I find it interesting that the company is suddenly willing to build fiber in neighborhoods that were not in its plans just a few years ago.
Doug,
As always, a good read. We have the same issues (but not the scale) here in the UK. See my thoughts on this at https://shorturl.at/syLKo
Best Wishes
John
Part of the reason may be the loss of customers to FWA, and if they don’t upgrade, their business will shrink.
AT&T plans to build fiber are surprising. Decommissioning copper networks has a large electricity cost savings, since the old equipment that operates the copper networks draws more power and generates more heat, which increases the AC load. Huge savings in electricity to decommission old equipment. Much of it is left in the rack and only removed when the space is needed. Just turning it off creates the savings, without the removal costs.
We (with the IRREGULATORS) have been tracking the fiber commitments, changes in state laws, and the creation of the digital divide for decades.
So let me add some things — Based on history, ATT has very little intention of actually upgrading their networks to fiber and the 20+ million lines is not in writing and will most likely be a bait and switch–FWA wireless but even that will be a great deal of make believe. — or they will count the lines they are renting from open access providers.
here is some of the ‘promise them anything’ statements and delivery or the lack thereof.- and it’s from a decade ago.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/att-can-say-anything-att_b_5490714
this 2025 announcement is designed to get rid of the remaining carrier of last rersort obligations — and anything else they don’t like. — promise them anyrhing.
And this current announcement has major holes no one is talking about — ATT claims 5% of ‘residential’ and ‘voice’ customers are using the copper wires which leaves out 80% of the total lines — such as business or even data lines. — or reclassified lines such as ‘U-verse, which was copper to the home but the addition of the VOIP took the access line out of the accounting.
https://kushnickbruce.medium.com/fcc-gives-approval-for-an-at-t-shut-the-copper-wireless-bait-and-switch-a1292e16ae48
and Verizon–
https://kushnickbruce.medium.com/verizon-ny-2023-annual-report-dear-ladies-and-gentlemen-of-the-jury-1d4b4d45bb60
Verizon took the state utility capx that was supposed to be upgrading homes and moved it to wireless, starting 2010.- so, in Fios, throughout the Verizon territories left at least 50% of their franchised areas undone — and in many of these areas will push FWA — i.e., the Fiber optic wires were built but for wireless.
And Verizon has never fulfilled it’s basic obligations like completing cities and towns it claimed were completed. — Like NYC, or the rest of the east coast.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/verizons-massive-east-coa_b_7631400
So, projections of actual lines in service– ATT has 80 million locations and only 9 million lines of fiber. This is now over 21 states. The links review the multiple times ATT and the merged companies claimed they would be deploying fiber.
vs fiber to the press release.
“It seems likely to me that the 29 million existing fiber passings were mostly done in neighborhoods with the lowest costs in the AT&T footprint. In my own city I’ve driven around and looked at AT&T’s claimed fiber passings, and most are overlashed onto copper wires. I assume AT&T has been using an expansion metric that considers the availability of overlashing plus the density of homes.”
This goes to the crux of opposition by AT&T and other investor owned players to Title II regulation that would require them to honor reasonable requests for service as common carrier utilities and not provide service only where housing density meets their internal rate of return standards.
The state telecommunications public utilities, almost all had specific requirements for full coverage of their franchise area since the turn of the century — the 20th century, and the communications act of 1934 made it law to serve everyone within the franchise area. Title II is still now, 2025 being used so that a) the builds can be charged to customers b) the wires are part of the utility — fiber wires — and c) that this was a scam as Verizon moved the budgets to build out wireless. — In short, they told the investors it harmed investment and then use Title II to get the utility perks and customers to fund it. — and this is ongoing in 2025 And the ‘rural areas, etc were left out and should have been upgraded because the companies told investors they were going to do wireless, and mislead the states and the cities.
Moreover, the companies have multiple hats — the utilities are funded via rates increases and the ability to manipulate the accounting at the state level And the other lines of business, then are getting a free ride– Investors never examined the state-based financials or requirements. ATT never mentions that their footprint are utilities, and AT&T claims that there are 2 networks–the legacy copper and the fiber-wireless. Three is one only network and it has multiple technologies, but a transfer of assets — the dismantling of the utility has been underway for decades.
The fiber optic wires are being put in as Title II and part of the utility and the lashing indicates that the fiber to the copper — demonstrates that —
The NJ Board of Public Utilities wrote: “Verizon NJ has been upgrading its telecommunications facilities in large portions of its telecommunications service territory so that cable television services may be provided over these facilities. The construction of Verizon NJ’s fiber to-the-premises FTTP network (the FTTP network) is being performed under the authority of Title II of the Communications Act of 1934 and under the appropriate state telecommunications authority granted to Verizon NJ by the Board
To clarify, are you saying that when AT&T builds FTTP, it’s under Title II and therefore state PUCs can enforce universal service and non discrimination provisions of the law? For example, someone residing in an area passed over for FTTP and near adjacent areas where it is deployed as Doug describes can bring an enforceable complaint to a state PUC demanding their request for FTTP service be honored?
Short answer — Yes, but there has been no challenge to do this and there are a host of caveats, state and federal.
We filed at the NY State Commission– Verizon’s statements and the agreement of the state to allow Title II to be used for FiOS, and part of the existing utility are documented.
And the state also agreed to rate increases on the cooper based line to fund ‘massive deployment of fiber in NY.
But that is only part 1, the second part is that the companies diverted the capx to wireless — and so those in the rural areas, or those in the non-FiOS areas will never get fiber upgraded they paid for — or continue to pay for. we believe that the capx work in progress’, is being charged to local service, ‘intrastate’ –when there is no work on the copper wired upgrades, and it’s not being sold. These comments lay out not using title II as much as the manipulated accounting underway
• Comment 1
http://irregulators.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/IrregilatorsNYState1final.pdf
• Comment 2
http://irregulators.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/IRREGULATORScomments2NYSTATE.pdf
Caveats: There are other issues — for example, net neutrality bais illegally combined a state telecom utility with an interstate information service, If the wire was paid for via local rates, and the wire is classified as title II, and section 254k doesn’t allow cr oss-subsidies of a regulated entity with these subsidiaries, or the various state laws that prohibit local phone customers “still regulated with dereg prices’,
Does the person or the muni etc. have rights as an individual — and has standing comes into play as well as the state cut the deal with Verizon? We faced that in NJ and other state challenges, when harmed, about, and failed fiber deployments. But there are some other options we re pursuing.
Simple question; If the fiber is tied to the copper, the copper must have gone to homes. The fiber could also be going to the cell site and through the town with 250 strands paid for but 200 may not be use. If the fiber was put in a part of the utility, as Title II, then how much did the wireless company pay (could be nothing) for the wires, and how many homes were passed but not lit, is another question. We had a few IBEW and potential whistle-blowers lined up in multiple states, who did not go forward but showed us ‘client of record’ and other docs, we’re no speculating.
This has some major potential implications as regulation shifts from the federal government to the states, i.e. the states could enforce Title II universal service/anti-redlining and rate regulation. See this from the California PUC:
https://www.publicadvocates.cpuc.ca.gov/press-room/commentary/250218-federal-actions-open-door-for-affordable-state-broadband-regulation
Big headline numbers from the executive office sound great. But then the construction managers get the maps out and figure out how many passings they can get in a hurry to make their numbers look good. This inevitably means the housing dense areas like cities get overbuilt first. Then when the economic downturn hits, or the revenue numbers aren’t what the street expects, or people cut the cord or don’t take the quad play packages… the construction comes to a halt. Half started unfinished networks, with ever-aging plant in rural areas and no desire to finish out the work.
T-Fiber is being built out in my subdivision on the Southside of Indianapolis, a neighborhood of over 1,000 houses built from 2001 to 2009 and which has 100% buried utilities. T-Fiber is building out the ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOOD all at once. It’s stunning to see those orange utility flags get placed street-by-street. I never thought it would happen in my lifetime… an entire neighborhood being built out all at once. AT&T Fiber did about 50 houses near the entrance and stopped. The rest have DSL. And, Comcast hasn’t improved upload speeds in the decade I’ve lived here. Still the same ‘ol 35 up as it’s always been. Anyway, T-Fiber has my business. I can’t wait for it to get connected!!!