Big ISPs have been using the same arguments against being regulated for the last decade. These arguments were used to justify killing Title II regulation under the Ajit Pai FCC and have been resurrected today to try to get Congress to override the FCC’s decision to reimpose broadband regulation. From my perspective, their arguments have gotten stale and out of touch with the way the market really operates. Consider the four major arguments big ISPs make against regulation.

Prices are Down. The big ISP trade associations have been telling the public for years that broadband prices have been falling in ‘real terms’. But anybody buying broadband from a cable company over the last decade knows otherwise. Big cable companies have raised prices year after year at a rate faster than inflation. The ISP argument rests on slight of hand that measures broadband price per megabit of speed. By that logic, when the cable companies unilaterally increased download speeds a few years ago from 100 Mbps to 200 Mbps, customers saw an instant 50% rate reduction. In ‘real terms’, that customer undoubtably got another rate increase that same year and paid more for the faster speed.

If you wonder how they can make this argument when people realize it’s not true, this argument is not aimed at the general public who pays the ever-higher rates but is a lobbying tool to give politicians a flimsy excuse for supporting large ISPs.

Broadband Investment has Accelerated. The big ISPs are peddling the story that having no broadband regulations spurs ISPs to invest more. They point to broadband investments made since Ajit Pai killed Title II regulation. The trouble is that there is no real-world evidence that lack of regulation had any impact on ISP investments. I work with or know many ISPs who are currently expanding fiber networks. I’ve never heard one of them talk about regulation or lack of regulation. Most ISPs see regulation as a minor nuisance that doesn’t cost much, and it’s not an issue that impacts how they operate the business. Carriers build last-mile fiber because they and their financial backers believe there is an opportunity to compete against cable companies and their inflated $100 broadband (oops, I thought prices were down).

Consider the big telcos that have been investing heavily in fiber. I listen to and read their announcements of quarterly earnings and track speeches given by their CEOs. These companies are investing in fiber for their survival. The copper networks are dead and dying, and fiber is their only path forward.

Cable companies are investing in faster networks far sooner than they had planned to. They are reacting to the fact that customers now believe that fiber is a better technology, and because lower-priced fiber and FWA companies are taking their customers.

Wireless companies made a sizable investment in 5G but quickly pared that back investment far below announced intentions when they realized that people like faster cellular speeds but aren’t willing to pay more for 5G features.

I don’t think there is any evidence that any of these ISPs worried about regulation when making these decisions. If they did, then investor calls and annual reports would be full of concerns about regulation – but they aren’t.

Competition Has Intensified. This is the same argument as the one above, just stated in different words. There is more competition as ISPs are building fiber and wireless networks to compete against the cable monopolies. However, it’s worth noting that the big ISP industry has overstated the case for the presence of competition. For example, FCC Commissioner Brandon Carr said earlier this year that 295 million Americans now have access to at least two high-speed ISPs. He’s relying on FCC mapping data to make that statement, but we all know the FCC broadband maps have a lot over overstated speed claims. There are a lot of ISPs claiming exactly 100/20 Mbps capability in the FCC maps that can’t deliver that speed. A huge number of broadband customers do not believe they have a choice of fast ISPs.

Internet Speeds are Up. Speeds are up for two different reasons. First, every major broadband technology has seen big improvements in the underlying technology. We’re now talking about 10-gigabit fiber speeds in the home. Fixed wireless radios have gotten much faster also aided by better bands of spectrum. Cellular speeds are way up.

One of the primary reasons for faster average broadband speeds is that the public demand for faster speeds is up. One-third of all U.S. households now subscribe to gigabit broadband, even when they have options to buy slower speeds. More than half of all homes buy broadband from cable companies. While we’re on the cusp of seeing cable companies increase network speed capacity, most of the faster speeds being delivered by cable companies come because of customers subscribing to faster speed tiers.

The big ISPs have been so steadfast in making these claims that I’ve taken the time every few years to see if these claims are somehow true. There is some truth in all of their claims except for lower prices – but I can’t find any evidence that regulation has anything to do with the changes over time in competition, broadband speeds, or broadband investment.