There has always been some uncertainty in the telecom industry and over my career I have seen some giant companies come and go from the scene. But as I watch the big companies today I am seeing more unease about the future than I can ever remember.
This unease is justified. And I think that perhaps this is due largely to the cumulative effect of the choices customers are making. In the past the large telcos and cable companies had a limited portfolio of products that they offered, with assurances that a significant portion of their potential customer base would buy them.
But in today’s world, customer choice is expanding rapidly. People have a huge number of options compared to the past, and as customers pick what they like we see winners and losers in the industry. This has to scare the big companies to death.
This happens at both the macro and the micro level. Let me start with the micro and look at programming choices. Recent Nielsen surveys show that the time spent watching traditional television programming, particularly on a real-time basis, is starting to decrease significantly. But the time spent by people watching some kind of content is increasing.
I’m not sure that older people understand how fundamentally differently our kids watch content than the way that we do. As an example, my daughter watches a lot of YouTube, in particular videos on how to make crafts. She has an artistic bent and she now finds content that pleases her rather than watching what some media company thinks that kids ought to watch. Basically, every kid is creating their own channel of content, and most of it is free.
As kids make these choices, and as that generation ages, traditional content is going to be in a world of hurt. For example, somebody you never heard of who goes by the name of Stampy Longnose started making Minecraft tutorials and walk-throughs and putting them on YouTube. He’s been a huge hit with kids under 10 and is now a millionaire due to his work on YouTube. We are now at a time when even 4 year olds are able to up-vote their favorite content. Certainly there will always be some content like Game of Thrones or House of Cards that grabs national attention and that gets millions of viewers. But over time a lot of the content that the various networks are putting together is going to go largely unwatched.
In this new world of micro-content, viewers find content by word-of-mouth. For instance, I have been watching a hilarious comedy on YouTube called The Katering Show that was recommended by a friend. This is a small budget ‘cooking show’ by two Australians that I have found to suit my own sense of humor (caution, it’s a bit bawdy). This is my first foray onto YouTube other than to watch music videos, but I know I will now be looking for other content there.
The same thing happens with cellphone apps. While there are a handful of apps that a whole lot of people use, over time we each go find things that please us. My favorite app is Flipboard; I get most of my news from it these days. Flipboard allows you to choose from a wide array of news sources and end up with a customized newsfeed. Every cellphone user has their own set of favorite apps. If enough people use a given app it succeeds, and if they don’t it fails.
On the macro level, there is a huge tug-of-war going on between platforms and devices. Anybody who is in those businesses has to be worried. For example, smartphones are becoming a serious competitor to PCs and tablets and even to televisions. My wife and daughter watch a surprising (to me) amount of content on their phones.
The industry still has some sway, of course, in the device market. They can make a huge marketing splash and get people interested in something new like wearables or smartwatches. But in the end, the public is going to pick the winners and losers in any new area. Countless companies have already come out with devices that they were sure would be a hit but that flopped badly.
Almost every segment of the industry is being tugged at by significant (or soon to be significant) competition. We are going to see WiFi battling it out with cellular, WebRTC battling for a big chunk of the voice business, OTT programming battling the cable companies, gigabit fiber networks challenging the incumbent ISPs.
In the hardware world we see cloud services going head to head with company routers and IT departments. Manufacturers of headends and cell sites are worried about software-defined networks that will eliminate the need for their equipment. Settop boxes are being replaced by smart TVs, Roku boxes, and game platforms.
It’s hard to find many parts of the industry that are not in turmoil in some fashion, though there are a few. Makers of fiber optic cables are working at a feverish pitch to keep up with demand. ESPN is making tons of money due to exclusive sports content. But more and more it seems that for the first time that I can remember in our industry, customers are picking the winners. That is something very new.
You are right, there are more content options than ever before… what is available in each genre, and “crossing over” to other genres is dizzying. Less and less, content choices are by “three guys in NYC” (to paraphrase Jon Malone…), or even five nerds in Silicon Valley. Pretty much anyone can post content for all to see.
(N.B. I find it truly incredible that two of the blogs that I subscribe to — one in Miami dealing with telecom topics, and one in Israel dealing with Middle Eastern topics — utilize the same WordPress.com platform… Hmm…)
What continues to remain oligarchic are the methods of access available to customers. The market share for fiber is controlled by two or three players, and the market share for WiFi access is controlled by two or three players. Customers seem to like the ubiquitousness of a monopoly.
Hmm… the more things change, the more things stay the same!!
Customers certainly have the ability to ‘vote’ for content by watching or not watching it. But yes, there is no real choice in the way we access the Internet, at least for most people. The actual connection to the web is an effective monopoly in most markets as admitted by the FCC in their latest annual state of the Internet report.