In my recent annual predictions for 2026, I predicted that the FCC or the NTIA would declare that the rural digital divide has been solved since everybody in the country now has access to adequate broadband.

We got an inkling of this from NTIA Assistant Secretary Arielle Roth in a speech she made to the Hudson Institute. She alluded to the end of the rural digital divide twice in that speech. First, she said, “This administration does not want BEAD to become just another well-intentioned broadband program that falls short. Its mission is nothing less than to close the “digital divide” once and for all.” Later in the speech, she said, “Being good stewards of taxpayer money means holding awardees accountable and making sure those who take taxpayer dollars will deliver on their promises. That is what will set BEAD apart and ensure that this really is the last broadband funding program.”

I can’t find any similar statements from FCC Chairman Brendan Carr, but he has been a strong supporter of satellite broadband. He’s been a big proponent recently for easing the regulation of satellite broadband companies and also freeing up a lot of spectrum for them.

It’s obvious that any pronouncements about the end of the rural digital divide would be tied to the ubiquitous availability of satellite broadband. It would not be a stretch for regulators to say that the rural digital divide has been solved since everybody can buy satellite broadband.

Of course, pronouncing the end of the rural digital divide is not the same thing as it being true. Starlink told State Broadband Offices that it needs BEAD grant funding to grow the capacity to serve larger numbers of rural households. Starlink no longer has any waiting lists, but it does warn that new subscribers might have to pay a ‘demand surcharge” in areas that are oversubscribed.

Starlink is no different than any ISP in that there is a maximum number of customers that it can serve in a geographic area. Recent estimates are that the company has around 2.6 million U.S. customers. Only Starlink knows what its real capacity is, but it’s not an unlimited number of subscribers, particularly in the parts of the country where it will see a greater concentration of customers. It’s anybody’s guess what Amazon One will mean for the industry.

There are definite repercussions if federal regulators say that the rural broadband gap has been solved. Certainly, this would mean the end of federal broadband grants. Even if grants are created, like is happening with ReConnect at USDA, there will be no grants awarded if the federal government declares that satellite broadband means all households are considered to be served.

Such a declaration probably also puts pressure on maintaining federal subsidies in rural areas through the Universal Service Fund. It becomes easy to justify ending ongoing subsidies for rural ISPs if satellite broadband can pick up any customers left stranded by the end of subsidies.

Such a declaration would be a big disappointment to the millions of homes being missed by BEAD. The last two years of the BEAD process focused on eliminating BEAD-eligible locations, many of which still don’t have good broadband. For example, the map challenge process eliminated huge numbers of homes from BEAD that are claimed by WISPs using CBRS spectrum, with no real concern if the WISPs were actually delivering adequate broadband. Making this declaration would end up leaving these homes to satellite without any public declaration.

People who still don’t have good broadband are not going to stop complaining about it to local, state, and federal elected officials. A declaration that rural broadband might make it easy to ignore these folks for a while, but that will only last for so long.