My consulting firm does surveys and I want to highlight the results from a recent survey. This was a random survey with statistically valid results surveyed a cross section of the community, so the results are reasonably believable.
We asked survey respondents the number of hours per day they use a cell phone and computer or tablet. The following chart shows the response by age:
These results are not as accurate as studies that require people to keep a usage log, and the above numbers tabulate the number of hours people think they use devices. Note that these statistics come from just one survey.
These results reinforce a few things I’ve been reading from various studies. Those over 65 are still using devices for fewer hours per day than younger age groups. 18 to 34 years old are using devices more than older folks, on average.
The response that I want to highlight is the big shift in usage of those under 34 to using cell phones instead of computers. Just a few years ago, our surveys showed an even split of device use for this age group. Going back a few more years and usage would have been weighted to using computers.
Unfortunately, our surveys don’t reach those under 18, but everything I’ve been reading says that teens and younger kids have migrated to cell phones to a greater degree than shown by this survey for 18-34 year olds. Kids are not just using cell phones – they are talking to them and rarely use a phone’s keyboard.
That’s the phenomenon that makes me ask if we are seeing the beginning of the end for typing into computers. I’ve been reading science fiction my whole life, and a constant prediction of the future has always been communicating with computers by voice.
The recent advent of AI is likely to increase this trend away from typing. I’ve been promised a good computer assistant since I used Ask Jeeves in 1996. No good software has ever come along that isn’t more work than doing things myself, but with AI that is likely to change soon.
There is no denying that younger folks are already making the transition away from typing and now prefer the smart phone. Friends of mine with younger kids say they complain loudly about having to use a keyboard. I’m clearly old school. I spend four hours or more a day writing and a lot of time working on complicated spreadsheets. My brain is completely trained on using a keyboard for those functions, and I’m not sure I’d want to try to transition to talking. But I love voice-to-text on my phone and I see the appeal to use voice for other functions.
It’s not hard to envision a reasonably near future where people will transition more from keyboards to talking. The future choice will not be between computer and cell phone, but a choice of the best screen to use for various functions. Unless we finally get functional glasses or holograms that can display anywhere we go. Give me the whole package and maybe I’m ready to talk.
Doug, did the survey cover devices other than phones and traditional desktop/laptop computers? For example, my tablet has a keyboard accessory that allows me to type normally instead of fumbling at the glass, so you could say that’s something of a gray zone of “device + keyboard.”
Yes. Included tablets.
“It won’t be long before we see the demise of the keyboard. And its little pal the mouse, too. Keying in information is actually a barrier between the originator of information and its destination. We’ll soon be seeing genuinely intelligent artificial intelligence that will oversee speech recognition, and intelligent processes that will routinise many of the things we currently crank by hand through our electronic systems.”
Lake, Andy. Beyond Hybrid Working: A Smarter & Transformational Approach to Flexible Working (p. 311). Taylor & Francis. Kindle Edition.
Did the survey happen to ask if the respondents were living in a rural or non-rural area? This might impact the amount of time spent on a cell phone vs. computer/tablet as well.