I constantly see articles that make claims about the percentage of homes that have broadband, cable TV, or telephone service. I remember an FCC report a few years ago that claimed that 88% of homes at the time had home broadband. Any time I see a statement like that, I ask the question – how many total homes are in the U.S. – a number that is needed to calculate a penetration rate. There doesn’t seem to be any consensus on that question.

Let me provide some examples.

• Cartesian recently released a report in conjunction with the Fiber Broadband association that said as of June 2023 there were 54.1 million fiber passings, which the report says is a 45% national market penetration. That math suggests there are 120 million total U.S. possible passings.
• RVA released another report in conjunction with the FBA that said as of September 2023 there were 69 million fiber passings, which equates to 128 million total U.S. possible passings.
• Leichtman Research Group has for years published a list of the claimed broadband customers of the largest ISPs. As of the end of end of 2023 the biggest ISPs collectively claimed 114.7 million broadband customers. Leichtman said these ISPs represent 95% of the broadband market, which implies that there are more than 120 million broadband customers at the end of 2023. That implies a much higher number of total possible passings.
• The FCC broadband map counts BSLs (broadband serviceable locations), which are places where a customer can buy broadband. The FCC fabric says there were 114.4 million BSLs at the end of 2023. It’s hard to know what to do with this number.

Over the years, I’ve tried to use the U.S. Census to figure this out. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the total potential U.S. broadband market at the end of 2023 was something like the following:

Residential living units           145.8 million

Business establishments         13.6 million

Total                                         169.4 million

The business count comes from subtracting 19 million home-based businesses from 32.6 million total businesses in the Census.

Consider some other statistics that probably have some impact on figuring out the denominator of potential broadband customers:

• CoStar, which tracks the housing industry, says there were 18.4 million apartment units at the end of 2023.
• A recent survey from GOBankingRates said that 40% of families have a second or vacation home. Counting vacation homes is a controversial issue with the FCC maps. Vacation homes can very from multi-million dollar homes at the beach to a hunting cabin with no electricity.
• A recent study by Lending Tree showed there are 5.5 million vacant homes just in the largest 179 metropolitan areas that are used as short-term rentals and vacation homes.

I’ve tackled this exercise periodically and have never gotten close to having a satisfactory answer. I think many of the folks who cite penetration rates are off base – as you can see from this blog, that’s not surprising. Who knows what ISPs are counting when they claim fiber passings? I have an idea that a lot of ISPs are claiming the same passings, particular for multi-dwelling units. Are folks counting businesses properly? Are they accounting for abandoned and empty homes? What’s the right way to count second homes?

The bottom line for me is to assume any statistic that claims a national penetration rate for a  broadband statistic is not accurate – possibly badly so. This doesn’t imply that the folks making a claim are being deceptive – I think it just means that there is no consensus for the denominator used to calculate a national penetration rate. There are folks in academia and government who might be able to shed light on this – but I would expect that different experts will come up with different methods of counting.