The Powers and Communications Contractors Association (PCCA) along with the Fiber Broadband Association announced the completion of a study, Broadband Markets Workforce Needs, at the recent Fiber Connect 2024 convention that predicts the industry is going to be short of the fiber construction workers, fiber technicians, and engineers needed to meet the upcoming broadband deployment driven by BEAD and other federal grant programs.

To avoid construction delays, PCCA suggests that 28,000 more broadband construction technicians and 30,000 more broadband technician workers are needed to meet the demands of constructing BEAD and other federal broadband programs. While not estimating a number, they also say that the industry is short of the drafting, design, and engineering resources needed to support the grant programs.

PCCA also predicts that there will be 199,200 fiber construction workers and technicians retiring over the next decade who will have to be replaced.

PCCA warns there will be significant BEAD construction bottlenecks and delays if the industry can’t find a way to fill these positions.

The contractor industry has a conundrum. I’ve talked to a number of my clients lately who say they are having no problem finding crews for current fiber projects.  It’s hard for a construction contractor to justify putting a lot of effort and cost into hiring and training technicians at a time when there isn’t any apparent labor shortage.

There is no doubt that BEAD is going to create a big construction bubble. By the time you consider ISP matching funds, BEAD will result in more than $50 billion in broadband spending condensed over a few years. I predict the bulk of this money will be spent between 2026 – 2028.

BEAD isn’t the only program driving construction. There will be federal spending during this same time period for RDOF and ReConnect. There are plenty of projects still underway and funded by ARPA grants. There will be  some early spending from the EA-CAM subsidy. It’s even possible that there could be spending from the FCC’s proposed 5G Fund.

On top of the federal funding is the continued fiber expansion of the biggest telcos, cable companies, and fiber overbuilders. If these companies stay on their predicted expansion paths, they might easily be building fiber to pass 5 – 7 million new locations per year during this same time period. There also seems to be a boom in long-haul and middle-mile fiber construction.

The PCCA is not wrong. There is a tsunami of fiber construction coming. Contractors are going to want to meet the demand. But I expect they will also be cautious. Contractors have seen many booms and busts over the years – ask any contractor who worked for Verizon 5G. As busy as BEAD is going to make the industry, contractors are not going to want to invest too heavily in expensive construction equipment that might not have much use when the bubble is over.

I’m just conjecturing, but I expect we’re going to see exactly what PCCA is predicting – labor supply chain delays. If past experience is a teacher, this is going to be an insidious shortage. Most projects will find a willing contractor. But those contractors will struggle to keep the needed staff during the life of the project. Subcontractors who work on projects will disappear overnight if somebody offers them more pay elsewhere. Regardless of how a shortage manifests, fiber construction projects will fall behind schedule as labor shortages pile up.