The earlier blogs in this series looked at the growing demand for broadband speeds and broadband usage. I then went on to look at what the likely future demand might mean for last-mile and middle-mile networks.

There were some interesting conclusions included in the four blogs:

• The demand for broadband speed grew at a rate of 21% per year since 1999 when the best broadband available to homes was 1 Mbps from DSL or cable modem. If that rate of growth holds up for the next 25 years, the definition of download broadband in 2049 will be 10-gigabits. That may sound outlandish, but 25 years is a long time, and more than a third of households already subscribe to gigabit speeds, and we’re already building last-mile networks capable of 10-gigabit speeds. Even if the demand growth curve slows down and doesn’t reach that high level, the demand for speed in the 25 years is bound to be a lot faster than today’s.
• The demand for broadband usage has grown at a slower but steady pace. If the current rate of growth from 2022 to 2023 (11% to 12%) remains steady, the demand for broadband usage would be 12-15 times larger than today in 25 years. That would mean the average future home and business would use over 5 terabytes of broadband per month.
• Only fiber technology will be able to satisfy the future demand for speed and usage in 25 years. Current fiber deployments will require upgrades of last-mile lasers to something like the 40G PON which is now being developed by vendors.
• Coaxial networks will not be able to meet the demand of 25 years from now, and during that time will have to be upgraded to fiber.
• Wireless technologies will not be able to meet future demands unless the FCC rearranges spectrum to provide larger channels.
• Existing middle-mile networks cannot handle the expected future demands and will need to be upgraded over time to faster with speeds greater than one terabit. Unfortunately, most existing middle-mile fiber cannot handle faster lasers and will have to be replaced. In fifteen or twenty years, we’ll experience a middle-mile crisis when major investment will be needed to keep the networks functioning.

I’m the first to admit that I don’t have a crystal ball, and these predictions are not precise. But I’m positive that greater broadband demand is coming over time. My predicted time frame is not the important message – what matters is that increased demand is coming in the future. After thinking about everything discussed in the last four blogs, I reached the following conclusions:

• We should start soon to develop a strategy to bolster middle-mile fiber routes. We’ll be facing a crisis in 15-20 years where most middle-mile fiber will have to be replaced to accommodate faster lasers.
• Commercial companies are building some new middle-mile fiber, but not at a pace that’s needed. Any failure to upgrade secondary middle-mile fiber routes will mean that rural areas and small towns will become bandwidth starved in the foreseeable future, even if the last-mile technology in those places has been upgraded to fiber.
• Regulators and policymakers should consider future demand before giving out money to build broadband infrastructure. That failure to consider future broadband needs has repeatedly resulted in the FCC and states providing grant funding for broadband infrastructure that can’t meet predictable future demand. Any broadband infrastructure funded by grants should have the capacity to handle the expected demand during its expected useful life. To expect less means funding networks and technologies that will be obsolete too soon.
• The expected future growth in demand means that every existing broadband network will have to be upgraded at some point in the next 25 years. For example, even an XGS-PON network built today will likely be obsolete in less than 25 years.
• We need to invest in strategies that relieve broadband traffic from having to go to and from the major Internet POPs. That might include strategies to increase the use of edge-computing, caching more data locally, and creating many more peering points closer to local ISPs.