State versus Federal Regulation

I’m often asked questions by clients about specific federal or state regulations, and my clients often don’t understand how or why certain regulations apply to them. One of the things I’ve always relied on in understanding a specific regulation is something that I learned many years ago in a class on regulatory theory. Regulatory theory defines five different ways that the federal government and states can impose regulations. I often understand a regulation better when I understand how that regulation was created.

Sometimes federal regulations clearly preempt all state regulatory action. Such federal rules generally stem from a law passed by Congress that is interpreted by a regulatory agency like the FCC. A simple example is CALEA rules that allow federal law officials to wiretap or gain access to customer ISP data through a valid subpoena. Congress passed the Communications Assistance for Law Enforcement Act (CALEA) in 1994, with some modifications that can from the Patriot Act. The FCC followed Congressional action with a list of specific procedures that ISPs must follow to comply with the law. I’m not aware of any cases of state regulatory rules trying to modify the CALEA requirements, so this is a federal mandate that applies in all states, without question or challenge.

More common are federal mandates that preempt less stringent state laws but permit states to establish more stringent standards. A good example of this is pole attachment rules. There have been requirements since the Telecommunications Act of 1934 that pole owners must allow attachers onto poles. These rights were further reinforced by the Telecommunications Act of 1996. The FCC followed the 1996 Act with revised federal pole attachment standards and rules. Thirty states still follow those federal rules, but another twenty states have gone on to clarify and require even stricter pole attachment rules. All states are still governed by the general principles established in the federal rules, but the FCC explicitly invited states to get more specific as they see fit.

We are currently seeing the third example of federal regulation that comes in the form of rules included in federal grants or other forms of assistance. Every federal broadband grant program has included a different definition of broadband and the geographic areas that might be funded by that grant. This is confusing to most people because they want to know the federal definition for terms like unserved and underserved. The FCC has never set a definition of these terms, so there is no federal standard. The confusion comes since every grant program is free to redefine these terms. Sometimes grant programs have no choice – for example, many of the rules used by the USDA for the ReConnect grants were established when Congress provided the money for that program. But the rules used for Reconnect grants have no bearing on grants issued by other agencies. Even when there are Congressional rules for a given grant, the agency issuing the grant always has leeway in setting specific rules that were not mandated by Congress. Anybody who has ever applied for a federal grant knows that the grant rules are unique to each grant and also immutable – you either follow the rules or you don’t get the grant.

We sometimes see regulations established by a cooperative program in which voluntary national standards are formulated by federal and state officials working together. The best historical example of this in the telecom world has been the Federal-State Joint Board. The Joint Board is a cooperative effort by FCC and state regulators to create rules. When I first joined the industry, the Joint Board established many of the rules relevant to cost separations and settlements between carriers. In more recent years, the Joint Board has focused on Universal Service Fund issues.

Finally, some regulations are clearly in the state domain, either from common practice or because the federal government never chose to regulate an issue. There are a number of common state regulations that affect telecom carriers. Some common examples are the establishment of a state Universal Service Fund, annual reporting rules for carriers to a State Commission, state rules that might prohibit municipalities from becoming ISPs, and state rules for specific taxes and levies.

The Big Questions

I took a pause the other day to think about the big issues facing the telecom industry. When I’ve done that in past years I always came up with a few major issues and more smaller ones. But we are in such turmoil right now that I rattled off the following list quickly. I can’t remember a time when our industry was wrangling with so many major issues at the same time. The performance of the industry over the next decade is going to depend upon how we handle these issues.

Supply Chain. AT&T said recently that it wasn’t going to make its targeted fiber builds this year due to supply chain issues. A few large telcos like Frontier and Windstream said that the supply chain is not a bad issue right now, but I have small ISP clients that are already seeing some dreadful delivery times on fiber and electronics, probably because they are last in priority in the industry. Regardless of the state of today’s supply chain, there is no doubt that the supply chain collapses if we come close to meeting RVA’s estimate that the collective industry plans to build 61 million fiber passings by the end of 2025. How badly might the big telcos miss targets within a few years if there isn’t enough fiber? How will the huge government grants deal with awarded projects that can’t find the materials or crews needed to construct in a timely manner?

Cable Companies and Competition. If the ISPS collectively build fiber past 61 million homes and businesses, the cable companies are going to start seeing some significant competition. Cable companies have enjoyed unprecedented growth while they’ve been killing DSL, but competing against fiber is a different story. How will Wall Street react if cable companies start losing customers? Will cable companies react by upgrading to DOCSIS 4.0, migrating to fiber, or biding their time and doing nothing?

New Technologies. We see the birth of new technologies like low orbit satellites and millimeter-wave broadband (like Starry). How disruptive will these technologies be? Which new technologies will have the legs to thrive and survive?

Future of Cable TV. How long will it take the big cable companies to walk away from traditional cable TV? The industry lost almost 6 million traditional cable households last year. Traditional cable TV viewing has dropped significantly to now be only 39% of the total hours of video viewing.

Gigabit Applications. OpenVault reported at the end of the first quarter than 10% of all US households are subscribing to a gigabit broadband product. Does this finally create the market for developing products that use huge bandwidth like telepresence? The bigger question is how ISPs will handle large-bandwidth streaming – networks have not been designed to handle a lot of large simultaneous streams?

Digital Divide. The Senate infrastructure bill provides huge new funding to subsidize low-income broadband. This will transform the urban ISP market and could attract investments in poor neighborhoods if ISPs feel confident that the subsidies will continue long enough to cover the borrowing costs to build infrastructure. This is as close as we’ve ever come to solving the urban digital divide – but how can we give assurances to ISPs to enable them to make investments to modernize inner-city broadband networks?

Gigantic Grants. We are probably looking at a one-time opportunity to upgrade broadband across the country. The federal government has never shown the capacity to efficiently hand out huge amounts of broadband money, and there were a lot of problems with the ARRA and the RDOF programs, the two biggest funding programs to date. Will we spend this money efficiently so that broadband gets to everywhere it’s needed, or will there still be significant pockets of homes that get bypassed by the funding?

Video Streaming Continues to Grow

ISPs all know firsthand that the use of video streaming grew significantly during the pandemic. Nielsen tracks video usage better than anybody else in the industry, and they report that 26% of all the time spent watching content is now done through streaming. Streaming has surpassed broadcast TV (watching TV from through-the-air reception).

The latest breakdown of the way that people receive content is as follows:

  • Cable TV – 39%
  • Streaming – 26%
  • Broadcast – 25%
  • Other – 9%

The 9% other category represents gaming, streaming through a cable settop box, and watching DVDs. It’s worth recalling that watching gaming is done online and is one of the fastest-growing segments of video consumption.

These percentages show perhaps better than any other way how far traditional cable TV has dropped in importance to households. A decade ago, households spent nearly double the time as today watching cable TV.

Nielsen has also quantified the time spent watching various streaming services. Following is the percent of total video time watching spend with the various streaming services:

  • Netflix – 6%
  • YouTube – 6%
  • Hulu – 3%
  • Amazon Prime – 2%
  • Disney – 1%
  • All other streaming services – 8%

These statistics show the market power of the largest streaming services. It’s almost mindboggling to think that Netflix and YouTube have grown to each represent 6% of all of the time spent nationally watching video.

While these latest statistics show how large streaming video has grown, it also provides a warning of how much it can still grow. As cord-cutting continues, the percentage of hours using broadband to watch video will continue to grow. It wouldn’t be surprising if a decade from now we see a doubling in the percentage of time spent streaming.

This is a caution to network engineers that the crazy growth in average household broadband usage is going to continue to grow as more and more video is consumed online. OpenVault recently reported that the average US home now uses 563 gigabytes of broadband per month – and that number is going to continue to climb significantly just from increased video consumption online. Add to that the gigantic usage coming from people working and schooling remotely and the new phenomenon of video conference calling, and it’s not hard to imagine average home broadband usage doubling again in just a few short years.

Drone Research in North Carolina

The Platform for Advanced Wireless Research (PAWR) program, funded by the National Science Foundation, recently expanded the footprint for a wireless research trial in North Carolina. Labeled as the Aerial Experimentation and Research Platform for Advanced Wireless (AERPAW), a wireless testbed has been created in and around Cary, NC to also include the Lake Wheeler Field Laboratory and the Centennial Campus of NC State in Raleigh.

The wireless testbed is one of four created in the country. There will be a number of participants in the experiments, including NC State University, the Wireless Research Center of North Carolina, Mississippi State University, the Renaissance Computing Institute of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, the town of Cary, the City of Raleigh, Purdue University, and the University of South Carolina.

The AERPAW program has been seeded with $24 million of grants from the National Science Foundation. The primary purpose of the North Carolina testbed is to explore the integration of drones with 5G wireless technology and to accelerate the development and commercialization of promising technologies.

The recent expansion came when the FCC named the area as an Innovation Zone as part of its Program Experimental Licenses. These licenses give the qualified research institutions the ability to conduct multiple and unrelated experiments over a range of frequency bands without having to ask permission from the FCC each time. The combination of the PAWR grants and the FCC Innovation Zone means an accelerated timeline for gaining access to the spectrum needed for experiments.

The North Carolina experiments are just getting underway and should be in full swing by 2023. There are already some interesting experiments being contemplated:

  • There will be an experiment to explore the feasibility of using drones to temporarily act as cell sites after the damage caused by hurricanes and other disasters. As our society becomes more reliant on 5G connectivity, there will be an urgency in restoring damaged cell sites quickly. The experiments will also consider the use of 5G cell sites mounted on cars, buses, and golf carts.
  • This same concept might be able to make a portion of a cellular network mobile, meaning the network could be shifted to serve increased demand when people and traffic are unexpectedly busy. Picture 5G drones flying over a football stadium.
  • There will be experiments to try to improve and guarantee the accuracy and ability of drones to delivery key packages such as medicines or commercial deliveries.
  • Research is contemplated to use drones to collect data from IoT sensors on nearby farms.
  • There is also an experiment envisioned that will look at ways to improve the ability of air traffic control to track and account for drones.

The PAWR platform is interesting in that commercial companies can request research into specific applications. In this case, a corporation could fund research into a specific use of drones, and the Innovation Zone means that any spectrum issues associated with trying new ideas can be accommodated. As might be expected, several wireless vendors are part of the platform. For example, Ericsson has installed 4G/5G RAN equipment at the Lake Wheeler site to initiate experimentation. Thirty-five vendors plan to participate in the four wireless testbeds around the country and might likely be the major beneficiaries of any technologies that prove to be viable.

This kind of research is vital if we are to develop wireless technologies for widespread use. There is only so much experimentation that can happen in labs, and this kind of testbed allows researchers to quickly identify both issues and benefits of 5G drone applications.

Update on RDOF

The RDOF reverse auction was completed in December 2020, and since then, the FCC has been silent about the disposition of any of the winning bidders. Part of the quiet period has been due to the FCC processing the long-form applications where grant winners demonstrate that they have the technical, managerial, and financial capability of fulfilling the RDOF buildouts. The FCC’s silence came to an end recently with several actions taken by the agency.

The FCC first published a list of almost 11,000 Census blocks where RDOF grant winners have elected to reject funding totaling over $78.5 million. The defaults came for a variety of reasons. For example, there are some cases where investigation showed that an ISP was already offering fast broadband in a grant area. Other defaults come from the bidders deciding they couldn’t make an economic case for the Census block clusters won in the auction. The FCC has the ability to fine grant winners that default on winning grants, and the agency will likely consider the fines on a case-by-case basis.

Next, the FCC sent letters to dozens of RDOF winners asking them to voluntarily give up the RDOF funding for specific Census blocks. These are places that should never have been included in the auction. The list included such places as large metropolitan airports and big parking lots. Starlink alone was asked to give up funding to 6,500 Census blocks.

The FCC also sent a different letter to 197 RDOF grant winners asking them to reevaluate taking funding in specific blocks where the FCC now believes that one or more ISP already delivers speeds of 25/3 or faster. The FCC acknowledges that most of these areas were erroneously included in the action due to bad mapping data. These grant winners were warned that if they don’t relinquish these Census blocks that the FCC will look hard at blocking the funding for these areas – an action that could delay approval of overall funding for an ISP.

The FCC also announced that it was rejecting some of the claimed areas for LTD Broadband. The FCC killed funding for the company in California, Kansas, and Oklahoma due to the company not getting regulatory approval in those states to become an Eligible Telecommunications Carrier. This rejection killed $187.5 million in California to serve 76,856 locations, $81.1 million in Oklahoma to reach 39,889 locations, and $3.2 million in Kansas to reach 2,122 locations.

There has been some question of what happens to the Census blocks that are now back in play. Some have speculated that these areas would roll into the next RDOF auction. However, the FCC has no power to claim or reserve Census blocks, and any of the areas that fall out of RDOF becomes eligible for the many other grant programs now underway.

Finally, the FCC started making RDOF awards. It awarded $311 million to these companies that have made it successfully through the long-form review process. This will bring broadband to over 200,000 homes. This is only a small fraction of the $9 billion that was claimed in December. But for these companies and these Census blocks, the 10-year clock will soon be started to fulfill whatever technology was promised in the winning bid.

The FCC still has a long way to go. These actions clear up some of the messes caused by the FCC using bad mapping in setting grant areas. There are industry analysts that say that this effort is not complete and that additional areas are yet to be identified. But the FCC has disposed of less than $1 billion of the $9 billion in awards, so expect to hear periodic awards for more grant winners.

The FCC still has to wrestle with a few huge issues. There have been numerous complaints saying that grant winners like LTD Broadband should not have been allowed to participate in the auction in a big way. There are other grant winners that claimed the ability to deploy gigabit rural wireless – a technology that nobody I know thinks exists. There are likely ISPs that will not make it through the long-form review for some other reason, such as the inability to guarantee funding. The agency is likely a long way from resolving these many issues.

Satellite Broadband and Farming

An article in Via Satellite discussed John Deere’s interest in using low-orbit satellite broadband as the platform to expand smart farming. This makes perfect sense because there is no quicker way to bring broadband coverage to all of the farms in the world.

There are only a few other technologies that might be able to fill the farm broadband gap. The one we’ve been thinking about for the last decade is cellular, but there is a major reluctance of the big cellular companies to invest in the needed rural cellular towers and to constantly upgrade electronics for cell sites that have only a few customers. If you’ve ever traveled to the upper Midwest, you’ve stood on farm roads where agricultural fields stretch to the horizon in every direction. Standing in such a place makes you realize that cellular is not the answer. No carrier will invest in a cell tower where the potential customers are a few farms and the farm machinery. No farmer wants to pay a cellular bill large enough to support a single cell tower.

There is also experimentation with the use of permanent blimps that can provide broadband coverage over a several-county area. I wrote a blog last year about a trial with blimps in Indiana. It’s an interesting idea, and it may be a good way to support self-driving equipment. But the big downside to blimps is the ability to handle millions of sensors and to process huge amounts of data in real-time, like the monstrously large data files created by surveying fields for a wide variety of soil conditions. I also have to wonder about the ability to replicate this technology outside of prosperous farming areas in the US.

Before John Deere or anybody decides that satellites are the answer to smart agriculture, we need to know more about the real-life capabilities of satellites constellations. Big data users like cell sites and farms could bog down a satellite network and lower the usefulness for retail ISP services.

I think we’re going to quickly find out if satellite technology has a limited capacity – something we learned with earthbound networks a long time ago. An individual satellite is the equivalent of a broadband node device like a DSLAM for DSL or an OLT used in FTTP. Local broadband devices are subject to being overwhelmed by a few heavy data users. There is a reason that we use separate networks today to support cell towers and home broadband – because both would suffer by being on the same node.

The article raised this question and quoted a John Deere engineer as saying that the ideal situation would be for John Deer to own a satellite constellation. Putting the cost issue aside, space is going to get to be far too busy if we allow individual corporations to put up fleets of satellites. It’s not hard to imagine a John Deere constellation, a Verizon cellular constellation, a FedEx constellation, etc. The sky could get incredibly crowded.

The alternative is for the handful of satellite companies to sell access to corporations like John Deere. And that means somehow satisfying hugely different broadband needs from a satellite constellation. It’s not hard to imagine Starlink preferring big farms and cell sites over residential subscribers. Farmers and cellular companies are likely willing to spend more than households, but will expect priority service for the higher fees.

I’m sure that the satellite companies are flooded with unique requests for ways to use the satellites. If I owned a satellite constellation, I would likely pursue the most lucrative, highest-margin customers, and it’s hard to think somebody like Starlink won’t do the same. If they do, there will either be a limit on the number of residential customers they can accept or a degraded level of broadband for customers not willing to pay a premium corporate rate.

CenturyLink Selling Copper Assets

I wrote a few weeks ago that Lumen (CenturyLink) was looking to sell a large portion of its copper networks to Apollo Global Management. That rumor became real when the company announced a sale of copper assets in twenty states (the orange areas in the map below). Selling a regulated telco property is never an easy process, and the sale is not expected to close until the second half of 2022.

The sale covers the retail operations in the twenty states, which mostly means DSL customers. The sales announcement says that Apollo is getting 7 million passings but didn’t say how many active customers that is. The areas being sold include 200,000 fiber passings and about 59,000 fiber customers. The sale will cover “CenturyLink-branded assets” which includes “consumer and small businesses, . . . fiber and copper networks, tower site connectivity and central offices”. Lumen will retain its competitive CLEC business, which consists of a national fiber network and selling to business customers mostly in cities. For example, the CLEC business holds the lucrative GSA contract that sells phones and broadband to the federal government.

The sale price is $7.5 billion, which is reported to be 5.5 times adjusted EBITDA. That price and multiple seem high for buying a mostly copper network, and several analysts estimated the value at around $5 billion in recent weeks. The purchase also brings along $1.4 billion in debt, which means cash changing hands ought to be around $6.1 billion.

The Apollo Global Management team is led by three veterans who helped to build Verizon’s FiOS business, including Bob Mudge, Chris Creager, and Tom McGuire. This purchase is another example of telecom businesses being snatched up by giant equity firms. Apollo is on a buying spree and a week earlier announced the $200 million purchase of FirstDigital Telecom, a fiber-based carrier from Lindon, Utah; FirstDigital just recently acquired Veracity Networks. In just the last few months Apollo also recently purchased the Media Assets of Verizon for $5 billion, bought a share of the University of Phoenix for $1 billion, purchased one of the top industrial staffing firms EmployeeBridge, purchased the majority stake in bioenergy producer AS Graanul, and purchased Foundation Home Loans.

It’s going to be interesting to watch the Apollo team works its way through the regulatory approval process because the main goal of the management team is likely to bring fiber to the county seats and towns that come with this purchase. One report of the sale said that 70% of the customers being acquired are in towns and 30% in rural areas. It’s hard to think that the team will want to make any investment in rural copper properties – unless it somehow capitalizes on upcoming infrastructure grants. To gain regulatory approval for the sale, Apollo is going to have to promise regulators that it won’t walk away from rural obligation – a promise that will be hard to keep because CenturyLink stopped maintaining rural properties decades ago in many of these places.

One of the interesting sidenotes of the purchase for industry veterans is that the purchase includes Louisiana, meaning CenturyLink is divesting its original telco property. That will really cut the ties between Lumen and CenturyLink. The purchase likely is also divesting CenturyLink’s one foray into last-mile partnering through selling CenturyLink’s participation on the municipally-owned network in Springfield, MO.

It will be interesting to see if Apollo can do better than other past forays with buying copper networks. I can’t think of one of these mega-deals where buying copper networks has gone well. I think back on the purchases by Frontier, Fairpoint, Iowa Telephone, Windstream, Citizens, and others that never panned out – and those deals were for copper that was ‘t as ancient as is coming in this sale. Some of the rural customers in this sale have seen the name of the incumbent telco change several times – but they haven’t seen improvements in copper for decades.

Ireland’s Solution to the Rural Divide

The pandemic has given the whole world a pause to consider if we should return to business as usual when the pandemic is behind us. Ireland has a unique reaction and is something that could make sense here.

Ireland plans to provide incentives to lure people from cities back to smaller rural towns. Like much of the world, Ireland has seen decades of young people moving to cities to find work, leaving behind shrinking and aging rural towns. The government has announced a plan called “Our Rural Future” that will hopefully lure residents back to smaller towns.

An obvious key piece of this plan is making sure that rural towns have fiber broadband – something the country has been tackling for several years. The new plan is to fund the renovation of rural city centers and to create 400 rural working hubs. The government will give tax breaks to people and corporations that shift to working in the rural hub towns. The government also plans to relocate at least 20% of the 300,000 federal civil servants to the newly established hub towns.

The hope is to rebalance the economy throughout the country, so that rural areas share the same growth and prosperity as cities. The Irish government tried something similar in 2000 when it moved some government jobs out of Dublin.

This is an idea that we should consider here. Two-thirds of US counties have lost population since 2010, representing a huge shift of the population from rural America to cities and suburbs. Further, the population in a lot of rural counties is aging, since much of the lost population are younger residents looking for better-paying jobs.

The US has already started down a path to bring a lot of fiber to rural areas – something that is a key factor for making rural America a place to work. We’ve had recent grants like RDOF along with the new state and federal grants that should give a big boost to rural broadband. Even bigger would be an infrastructure plan to build tens of billions of dollars of fiber. We have one significant difference compared to Ireland’s plan. The US government is funding better broadband for the most rural places in the country, but not funding broadband upgrades for county seats. It is those towns across America that could thrive and grow with the right incentives. Ireland is creating the work hubs in small towns that are the equivalent to small county seats here.

There are enormous incentives for the US to consider something similar. If rural communities continue to lose population while continuing to age, we’re going to find rural economies dragging down the economy as a whole. Luring people out of cities can also help to cool off the torrid urban housing market that is making it nearly impossible for young families to afford homes. Pushing new housing construction to smaller communities here would spread our prosperity, much as Ireland is hoping for.

To do this in a big way would require the full support and funding from the federal government. However, individual communities can undertake a programs to lure urban residents. I wrote a blog some years back about how Independence, Oregon had a program to lure Portland residents to its lower cost of living and its fiber network.

As a nation, we only get a reset button once or twice per century, and this could be one of those times. Newspapers and the web are full of stories of people who used the pandemic year to reexamine their priorities, and there are seemingly millions of people willing to step off the urban treadmill if we make it easier for them to do so.

It seems kind of a shame to spend money on better rural broadband networks if we don’t also make a push to get people to use them. Perhaps some of this shift will happen naturally from people who have found a way to permanently work from home – something that is made easy with new fiber networks.

I’d love to hear from any communities that are actively using fiber to lure new residents.

California Tackles Middle-Mile Fiber

The California legislature unanimously passed legislation in both the Assembly and Senate to fund $3.2 billion for middle-mile fiber and another $2 billion for last-mile networks. It’s an interesting use of broadband money and recognizes something that we don’t talk about enough. There are currently huge federal grants aimed at bringing good last-mile broadband to rural areas, but many of the rural places in America still have inadequate backhaul to reach connectivity to the Internet.

The California legislation recognizes several things. First, there is a lot of federal money currently aimed at providing last-mile networks, but barely any grant funding currently for middle-mile fiber. Second, I imagine legislators in California have all heard stories about how rural communities today lose all Internet access for hours or days at a time when the single fiber reaching the community gets cut or has an electronics failure.

The best fiber last-mile network in the world can’t function if the fiber that routes traffic to and from the Internet goes out of service. The middle-mile fiber networks in rural America are often on the oldest fiber still operating in the country. Much of these routes were built years ago by the big incumbent telephone companies to provide a fiber path to support long-distance traffic. Most of these networks are configured like a wagon wheel where straight-line fiber paths are built from rural communities to a hub larger city in a region.

Like the rest of rural networks maintained by the big telcos, many of these fiber routes have been poorly maintained, and still likely are using electronics that are past the useful life. I wrote a blog last year about how the communities in northwest Colorado banded together to build an alternative for the inadequate middle-mile network still operated by CenturyLink. The existing fiber would maddingly go out of service, sometimes for days, and would leave communities and vital institutions like hospitals and public safety with no Internet access. The communities built a new middle-mile network they labeled as Project THOR, and almost immediately after activation, the new network saved communities from another big regional middle-mile outage.

https://potsandpansbyccg.com/2020/05/06/funding-middle-mile-fiber/

Rural communities not only need reliable middle-mile networks to deliver traffic to and from the Internet, but these networks must be redundant so that a single fiber cut doesn’t kill broadband for an entire community. That means building fiber rings. Too much of our daily lives now rely on broadband, and it is poisonous to a local economy when broadband access dies for an hour or a day.

The California middle-mile plan anticipates open-access where affordable transport can be provided to any ISP that wants to use the network. The legislation has a dual stated purpose – to first provide reliable broadband access to the rural parts of the state, but secondarily to make it easier for ISPs to serve in rural parts of the state. Buying connectivity on the traditional rural middle-mile networks is often unreasonably expensive and has been a barrier for serving pockets of rural customers.

The new networks will focus on reaching parts of the state where businesses and residents don’t have access to broadband faster than 25/3 Mbps. Almost invariably, in most states, these are the region that don’t have adequate middle-mile networks.

It’s always interesting to see any legislators pass something unanimously – it only happens when a topic is indisputably important. Once built, the new middle-mile fiber routes will serve rural California for many decades to come. There won’t be any headlines when this network is functioning and meeting its purpose – instead, there will no longer be news stories of small towns that lost broadband access for a few days.

The Battle Over Grant Rules

There has been a huge battle going on behind the scenes in Washington as Congress wrestles with including broadband grants in the infrastructure bill. Every lobbyist in Washington has been working overtime to try to influence the process. We’ve now seen the Senate’s vision of legislation, but there will still be a big fight when it’s time to reconcile the Senate and House broadband grant rules. Here are some of the key issues being contested in creating final infrastructure legislation:

What is Grant Eligible? This is the biggest area of contention. The big cable companies and telcos only want to see grants being awarded to places that don’t have 25/3 Mbps broadband today. More importantly, they want to see the eligible areas defined by the FCC’s lousy mapping. The big ISPs don’t want to make it easy for communities to make claims that actual broadband speeds are far slower than what has been reported to the FCC.

What the big ISPs definitely don’t want to see is the definition of unserved and underserved to be updated to something closer to reality. They do not want to see grant funding available to areas that don’t have 100/20 Mbps speeds today.

The worst possible scenario for the big ISPs is that local communities get to decide what areas need better broadband like is happening with ARPA funding that’s been given to cities, counties, and states. They know that cities intend to build fiber to poor neighborhoods, or even to whole cities – and the ISPs want to maintain the monopoly in these areas.

Who Decides the Grant Rules? There is also a lot of arm wrestling about who gets to decide the rules for grants. The big ISPs are not happy that Treasury got to set the rules for ARPA grants because that was a new group of decision-makers who have never been lobbied before. Giving the rulemaking ability to Treasury also meant that the White House could provide input by making its wishes known.

There is no perfect answer to this question from the perspective of the big ISPs. They don’t want Treasury to set the rules again. There are several alternatives. One is to let the FCC award the funding through another reverse auction, the option with the highest chance of following the FCC mapping. The rules can be set by the NTIA – a group that lobbyists know well – but which is likely unpredictable if handed tens of billions of dollars. Grant money could be given to the USDA to administer through the ReConnect grant program and the arcane rules at the RUS. Or funding could be given to states to decide – but only of the rules are first restricted to limit states from using the money freely.

Interestingly, I’ve heard credible rumors over the last few months that each of these options has been considered during various permutations of writing the legislation. The key goal for the big ISPs is to be able to influence grant rules, regardless of who will dispense the money. If the rules are set tight enough, much of the grant money could be unusable – and nothing would please the big ISPs more. For example, if money is divvied up evenly by state, then there are many states that can’t spend a pro rata share of the billions. If the rules can strictly only be used in places that can’t get 25/3 Mbps, then it’s probably impossible to spend much of the infrastructure money.

Broadband Speeds for New Infrastructure. A fight over speeds is the same thing as a fight over the technologies that can be built with grant funds. It seems the Senate has accepted the goal for new infrastructure at 100/20 Mbps. This speed enables grant funding to go to cable companies, WISPs, and satellite broadband. If grants can only be used to fund 100 Mbps symmetrical speeds, those two technologies are largely eliminated. You may have noted a spate of opinion pieces lately throughout the industry claiming that we don’t need symmetrical speeds. This is what that argument is all about.

Summary. You can quickly see who is winning the lobbying war by skimming through proposed legislation for these critical elements. On one side of the battle are broadband and community advocates who think we should largely use grant money to build fiber. This side argues for symmetrical speeds. They want communities to decide the areas that need better broadband rather than stick with erroneous FCC maps.

On the other side are big ISPs that don’t want to see fiber everywhere. They are pushing for a strict definition of areas that are eligible for grants, and they want technologies that barely meet 100/20 Mbps to be grant eligible. They want the ability to influence the writing of the grant rules.

We are now deep into the sausage-making part of legislation, and all of these issues are still open for debate. The Senate legislation clearly favors the big ISP position. There is still work to be done to get a bill that reconciles the House and Senate plans – and much more infighting to come. But at this point, the big ISPs and their lobbyists are winning the fight – which likely means in ten years, we’ll still be wondering why many parts of the country didn’t get adequate broadband.