This number is not entirely surprising to me because in the last few years I’ve seen new fiber networks get a much smaller percentage of cable customers than would be expected by the subscribership on the incumbents. New fiber providers do surveys showing incumbent cable TV rates between 65% to 75%, and yet they far lower percentages of new customers buying cable TV on their new fiber network.
I always interpreted this to mean that the new fiber competitor attract customers who want faster broadband. I’ve assumed that these were natural cord cutters. But if the Deloitte statistic is to be believed, a large percentage of new customers on fiber networks are using the opportunity of changing providers as a chance to drop the traditional cable that they no longer want.
We know that there is a financial penalty for breaking a bundle, which must be a strong incentive for people to stay with their current provider. The amount of this penalty differs by customer and often has to do with how willing a customer is to fight to keep a cheap price while dropping cable. I’ve always thought the penalty for dropping cable is between $10 and $20 per month.
But sometimes the bundle is more and is forced. I moved and left Comcast less than two years ago. They would not let me buy faster broadband speeds without subscribing to basic cable TV. I tried every year to try to drop the cable – something that I never used and for which I stashed the settop box in the closet. But I was told each year that dropping the cable meant dropping back to a slower broadband speed. In my case I would have saved at least $40 per month from dropping basic cable, but I felt blackmailed into keeping it to keep an acceptable broadband speed.
This statistic has a lot of industry implications. First, builders of new networks can’t count on a big cable penetration. Obviously the Deloitte 56% finding is going to vary from market to market – but it’s such a large number that in almost any market a new network is going to get far lower cable penetration rates than what the incumbent has today. We know nationwide that the overall cable penetration rate last year was 69%, which is now probably closer to 67%. New networks are going to see significantly lower cable penetration rates – if Deloitte is right, perhaps in the mid-30% range.
If this statistic holds true everywhere it is probably one of the main reasons why customer dislike of cable companies is growing. Cable companies have been among the lowest rated companies in terms of customer satisfaction – and in recent years their already low ratings are continuing to drop. Many consumers must feel the way that I felt about Comcast – that they are being ripped-off and held captive by the bundled pricing. The same bundle that they liked when it first saved money is being used against them if they want to drop cable TV.
This statistic also makes new technologies and new ISPs more attractive. People will likely flock to 5G if the speeds are decent and they aren’t forced to take cable TV. This might also be one of the reasons that many are choosing cellular broadband – to get away from over-expensive cable TV.
Finally, this means that the cable companies are sitting on an albatross of a product. There are many millions of homes paying for a product that they no longer want. Last year there were still more homes that dropped telephone landlines than cut the cable cord. But if the Deloitte statistic holds true, it might not take much for many homes to make the cord cutting decision and cord cutting could quickly change to a deluge. The industry-wide implications of that are huge – it would quickly cripple programmers. It would put a huge dent in the retransmission fees that are currently fueling the profits of the major over-the-air networks. A huge drop in traditional cable customers would quickly be felt in the sports world – which is largely financed with TV revenues. It means a drastic drop in the incentive to advertise on TV – the other major revenue that fuels the industry.
I believe that the cable companies have been counting on cord cutting to increase slowly over time, similar to the way that the landline telephone business has slowly ebbed away. But if there is this much pent-up demand to drop cable, it’s not inconceivable that the number of cable customers could drop explosively if there is a consensus that it’s worth it to break the bundle. The whole cable industry is not ready for an explosive drop in customers and it would get ugly quickly.